Mere hours until the major conference tournaments tip off, and it’s not even noon on a Tuesday. That means it’s firmly, squarely March, and the Madness brackets are piecing themselves together slowly but surely. The full picture should come into frame in due order. And with several first-round games billed for the afternoon, we’re focusing on one of the primetime evening slates in the Big 12: predictions, analysis, and best bets for the Arizona State at Kansas State college basketball game tonight.
Here’s how I’m playing this game between two underwhelming squads tonight. One of them has to advance, right?
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Arizona State at Kansas State prediction, preview
Bobby Hurley is sure running out an unfamiliar group of Sun Devils, isn’t he? Between suspensions, injuries, opt-outs, etc.
This is reminiscent, a bit, of the 2021 Creighton Blue Jays squad who was undermanned and otherwise entering conference tournament play under the shadow of HC Greg McDermott’s problematic comments, which caused discord in the locker room. Creighton, however, was ranked that year, and had plenty to lose. Arizona State doesn’t. Kansas State probably feels like it does, seeing as last time they lost to Arizona State, they were without Coleman Hawkins; he’s a legitimate difference-maker, and will be on the floor tonight.
Neither of these teams has been particularly inspiring throughout the season, but the Sun Devils’ 113-100 loss to Arizona as the regular season winded down was one of the more fun out-west games we saw throughout the week. They are playing loose. Kansas State, on the other hand, is not. Their most recent win over Cincinnati saw them hang only 54 points and still claim victory.
I love looking at free-throw percentage and turnover margin for these early-round conference games, since many of these teams are tired, or manically-inspired, and it feels sound—prudent, at the very least—to back the fundamentals. So let’s break down some stats:
Stat breakdown
Kansas State holds a slight edge over Arizona State heading into tonight’s matchup, particularly on the defensive end. The Wildcats allow just 69.6 points per game, a stark contrast to the Sun Devils, who surrender 76.4 per contest—ranking 302nd nationally in scoring defense. Kansas State also forces more turnovers (12.7 per game compared to 11.6), while limiting opponents to 31.5% from beyond the arc, giving them an advantage against an Arizona State squad that leans on 36.5% three-point shooting. Though the Sun Devils average slightly more points per game (74.8 vs. 71.8), they also commit more fouls (16.9 per game) and struggle to defend the glass, allowing 37.2 rebounds per contest.
Turnovers could be the X-factor in this low-seed tournament battle, as these games are often decided by a handful of key possessions. Kansas State turns the ball over 12.1 times per game, slightly better than Arizona State’s 12.6 giveaways, and also generates more takeaways, giving them a crucial edge in extra scoring opportunities. The Wildcats also distribute the ball more effectively, ranking 60th in assists per game (15.6), compared to the Sun Devils’ 395 total assists (235th nationally). While Arizona State’s perimeter shooting could be a factor, Kansas State’s ability to pressure opposing ball-handlers and limit three-pointers increases their chances of coming out on top. If the Wildcats can control the tempo and capitalize on Arizona State’s mistakes, they’ll be in prime position to advance.
Kansas State vs. Arizona State prediction, best bet
All to say, the Wildcats hold all the meaningful advantages—especially in the paint, where they were least effective last time against the Sun Devils—and, barring an inspired-out-the-gate upset written in the stars, I’ll take the Wildcats to advance and cover the spread, here. Arizona State made a lot of noise in the College Football Playoff, so they might get a decent percentage of the handle tonight. We might be getting KState at a value.
Best bet: Kansas State -5.5 (-118)
Tail the Wildcats to advance with me tonight in the DKN Betting group here!
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