Now we’re getting to some meaty games, aren’t we? While it may be the only Quad I game of the day at all, it’s simply the aperitif of an absolutely bonkers slate for a Wednesday afternoon and evening. It’s what March is all about. And, after burying Oklahoma State in Round 1 yesterday, do the Cincinnati Bearcats have your attention? Because they sure have much of the nation’s. And they better have the attention of T.J. Otzelberger and his Iowa State Cyclones, who have the rest (dis-?)advantage in this game. Keeping the same format as all my college hoops write-ups during tournament time for editorial consistency: let’s hit a preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this second-round college basketball game between Iowa State and Cincinnati in the Big 12 Tournament.
Here’s how I intend to play Wednesday’s only ranked game. I’ll be picking individual games throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Iowa State vs. Cincinnati prediction, preview for Big 12 Tournament Round 2
It feels like all the momentum is in Cincinnati’s favor against this spread, doesn’t it? The last time the Bearcats lost by more than 11 points was February 2nd against the West Virginia Mountaineers. Now, they’ve lost by precisely 11 points twice—once to this very Cyclones team, the other to Big-12-favorite Houston—in that time frame. But, consider this: they only lost by that number once in the month prior to that West Virginia game. Putting it simply: losing by more than 11 points is not something with which the Cincinnati Bearcats are familiar in the year 2025.
Perhaps that explains this line, which feels fishy, doesn’t it? State is holding as a 9.5-point favorite in this one. It seems, especially after they forced 24 turnovers and caught the attention of the casual hoops-watching public by blowing Oklahoma State out as the afternoon matinee, that Cincinnati would be a lock to hold this one within double-digits. Keshon Gilbert, one of Iowa State’s star guards who dominated Cincinnati in their 81-70 victory over the Bearcats earlier this season, is questionable, but trending upward. Dinged up nonetheless. Plus—this Cincinnati team looked like the hottest of the day on the ghastly Big 12 “XII” court, so are we really expecting a letdown spot of this caliber, even when they so consistently covered this number in conference play?
The turnover margin
We are. Why? The beginning of tournaments are about a return to fundamentals. Cincinnati showed us as much on Tuesday. They took care of the basketball better than Oklahoma State did, and were more ferocious attackers of it on the defensive end. Turnovers have been a focal point for Iowa State all season, and lately, the Cyclones seem to be regaining control in that department. After struggling with giveaways earlier in conference play, they’ve tightened things up, finishing with just 11 turnovers in each of their last two games against BYU and Kansas State. That’s a marked improvement from their last meeting with Cincinnati on Feb. 15, when they matched a season-worst 18 turnovers—one of four times this year they’ve reached that total.
Putting it simply: if Iowa State can control the ball such that they only allow around 12 turnovers (and preferably fewer, but they average 12.7 per game), it should obliterate much of the momentum Cincinnati gained against OKState, when they forced 24 turnovers. Even when the Cyclones gave up 18 turnovers against Cincinnati, they won by 11, and cleared this spread.
Cincinnati at Iowa State pick, best bet
I’m not sure we’ll get much more of an indication re. Keshon Gilbert’s availability for tomorrow’s game than what we got from ‘Clones HC T.J. Otzelberger earlier today:
Keshon Gilbert has practiced the last two days for Iowa State. TJ Otzelberger comments here. pic.twitter.com/jdUaDNzKj0
— CycloneFanatic.com (@cyclonefanatic) March 11, 2025
It sounds like he’ll be available, and that’s a huge relief for the Cyclones. Even still, it seems too easy to want to back Cincinnati with this number, but I genuinely think we’re onto something with the scales balancing in the turnover department for both teams. If this game is whatsoever clean, Iowa State could win in a blowout.
I’m not going to begrudge you if you want to back the Bearcats. They’re fun, and their most dynamic player is named Jizzle James—who, by the way, had a fantastic 26 points in that first game against ISU in February—and want to play like dogs shot out of hell the rest of the tournament. Iowa State will need to be pretty perfect against a team as disruptive as this.
But I like what I’ve seen from the Cyclones recently, and will back Otzelberger to have his guys ready to decidedly quiet a Day 2 upset in the Big 12. I’ll lean their way on the spread. My best bet, however, is on the u135.5.
Lean: Iowa State -9.5 (108)
Best bet: Iowa State vs. Cincinnati u135.5 total points
Tail this game to be a low-scoring slugfest between two Big 12 legacy programs with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
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