Following a high-profile two-game mini-series between the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder, the NBA MVP race remains firmly in the spotlight. While Nikola Jokic delivered a dominant statement in Monday’s rematch, oddsmakers still give the edge to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Jokic finished with 35 points, 18 rebounds, and eight assists in the Nuggets’ 140-127 win over the Thunder, outshining Gilgeous-Alexander one night after Oklahoma City’s star guard scored 40 in a convincing victory. Despite the back-and-forth exchange of performances, Gilgeous-Alexander remains the clear favorite in the latest MVP odds.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Gilgeous-Alexander is listed at -500 to win the 2025 NBA MVP award, while Jokic sits at +320. There is an uphill climb Jokic still faces in pursuit of a fourth MVP trophy, and the gap has only widened as the season has progressed.
Jokic, who has won the award in three of the past four seasons, is averaging 28.9 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 10.5 assists over 59 games. He ranks among the NBA’s top three in each category and continues to produce at a historically efficient rate. Monday’s performance, while battling ankle and elbow injuries, served as a reminder of his continued dominance.
“I will say that I think I’m playing the best basketball of my life, so if that’s enough, that’s enough,” Jokic said. “If not, the guy [Gilgeous-Alexander] deserves it. He’s really amazing.”
Gilgeous-Alexander has maintained MVP frontrunner status behind career-best production and consistent team success. He’s averaging 32.7 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.1 rebounds across 63 games while leading the Thunder to the top of the Western Conference standings.
Denver’s defensive strategy in Monday’s win was aimed squarely at Gilgeous-Alexander, frequently sending double-teams and limiting him to 14 shot attempts. He was held to two points in the fourth quarter.
“He’s definitely a top player in this league,” Jokic said. “He’s so crafty. His midrange is really, really, really historical, I’m going to say. He’s a great player, so we try to make him take bad shots or just get rid of the ball.”
While team records could factor into MVP voting, the Nuggets’ latest win moved them to 42-23, which ranks second in the Western Conference. The Thunder (53-12) remain 11 games ahead in the standings, further bolstering Gilgeous-Alexander’s case.
Nuggets coach Michael Malone didn’t hesitate to advocate for Jokic’s candidacy publicly.
“My thing is this: If you didn’t know that Nikola won three MVPs, and I put Player A and Player B on paper… the guy who’s top three in the three major statistical categories — things that no one’s ever done — he wins the MVP 10 times out of 10,” Malone said.
Still, the odds show just how strong a grip Gilgeous-Alexander currently holds on the race. Jokic may need to sustain this recent form—and hope for a Thunder stumble—to tighten the margin.
For now, the gap in MVP odds remains wide. But if Monday was any indication, Jokic isn’t finished making his case, even though he remains focused on winning a second NBA championship.
