The sunrise game! But for the Big 12 and ACC, no major conference tournament tipped off on Tuesday. Some conferences saw tickets punched; some conferences continued through their brackets. But today we see the SEC, Big 10, Mountain West, and more all begin their brackets, with eyes towards Selection Sunday. It all starts at 11:30am ET with the first round of the A10. Below, I run through my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this first-round college basketball game between Davidson and Richmond.
Here’s how I’m playing Wednesday’s first game. I’ll be picking individual games throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Davidson vs. Richmond preview, prediction
Richmond enters this matchup in, to call a spade a spade, a total tailspin. They’ve dropped four straight and struggling to hold leads late in games, as seen in their recent collapse against George Mason. The Spiders’ offense either mightily sputtered or disappeared altogether, failing to reach their 67.3 points per game average in three of their last four outings, while their defense continues to give up costly second-half runs. Things looked bleak to end the A-10 season for the Spiders.
Davidson hasn’t fared much better, losing six of their last seven, but they’ve at least been more competitive, staying within five points in three of those losses. With Connor Kochera on a scoring surge—coming off a 25-point effort against St. Bonaventure—the Wildcats appear better positioned to take control late, especially if Richmond’s late-game struggles continue.
Despite both teams stumbling into the Atlantic 10 Tournament on four-game losing streaks, Davidson holds a slight edge over Richmond in key areas that could make the difference. The Wildcats boast the best assist-to-turnover ratio in the conference, a stark contrast to Richmond’s sluggish, low-possession offense that struggles to generate high-percentage looks. While Davidson’s 68.8 PPG on 44% shooting isn’t overwhelming, they’ve been steadier than a Spiders squad that ranks near the bottom of the league in both pace and efficiency, averaging just 63.4 PPG in conference play.
Richmond’s -7 rebounding margin, the worst in the A10, makes second-chance opportunities scarce—especially concerning against a Davidson team that doesn’t send opponents to the free-throw line often. If Reed Bailey continues his 19.7 PPG hot streak, the Wildcats should be in prime position to capitalize on Richmond’s struggles.
Richmond at Davidson pick, best bet
Davidson has already proven its edge over Richmond twice this season, and there’s little reason to expect a different outcome in the first game of Wednesday’s tournament play. Reed Bailey—already hot; see above—has torched the Spiders, averaging 28 PPG on 56.7% shooting. It’s like Richmond simply can’t found an answer for him.
Offensively, Richmond’s ~63 PPG against Davidson isn’t going to cut it, especially given their season-long struggles in scoring depth and rebounding. The Wildcats, on the other hand, have at least shown resilience, with half of their conference losses coming by six points or fewer. Davidson has consistently gotten to the free-throw line against Richmond and covered the spread in both matchups, and with their three-point shooting primed to take advantage of a weak Spiders defense, they should once again clear the number.
I’m also leaning toward the o130.5, because I think Richmond should score 60, and I expect the Wildcats to score over 70 here. Empty arenas in the morning aren’t that much of an issue for tournament play.
Best bet: Davidson -6.5 (-105)
Lean: Davidson vs. Richmond o130.5 total points
Tail Davidson to take care of business against a sluggish Spiders tomorrow morning with me in the DKN betting group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
