All eyes in the NBA world are set to be on the MVP matchup between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder and Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. This is the second straight matchup between these two teams, with the Thunder producing a convincing 127-103 victory yesterday.
Gilgeous-Alexander headlined the performance finishing with 40 points, eight rebounds and five assists. He approached the game with an increased intensity, taking 32 field-goal attempts, which is the second-most he attempted in a game this season. The magnitude of the moment was not lost on the MVP favorite and another impressive performance tonight may be enough to pencil his name on the trophy.
It should be noted that Nikola Jokic is officially listed as questionable with both elbow and ankle injuries ahead of tonight’s matchup. The three-time MVP has been the poster boy of availability and reportedly is expected to warm up with the intent to play. This game would certainly lose some luster if Jokic cannot play. Oklahoma City will become the first Western Conference team to clinch a playoff spot with a victory tonight.
While Jokic’s status will certainly change the odds, the Thunder are currently listed as 10-point favorites and -440 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nuggets hold +340 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 236.
With the stage set, here are my favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop bets for the second half of the back-to-back matchup.
Best Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s props are listed at over/under 33.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 2.5 made three-pointers and 45.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Record Over 45.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-110)
The magnitude of the moment was not lost on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander yesterday and count on the same approach today. The MVP favorite finished with 53 combined points, rebounds and assists and is averaging 44.2 combined stats on the season.
His hot streak extends beyond just yesterday. Gilgeous-Alexander has tallied 40+ points in three straight games and eclipsed 45.5 combined points, rebounds and assists in each of these. He is averaging 44.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 6.7 assists across this brief stretch while shooting 54% from the field and 40% on three-point attempts across this three-game stretch.
Denver’s defense ranks 23rd in opponent points allowed this season. It would not be surprising to see a shift in defensive strategy to prioritize making Gilgeous-Alexander beat it as a passer and forcing the ball out of his hands. With this in mind, I prefer the combined statistical approach. Gilgeous-Alexander is too talented as a scorer to be completely prevented and is plenty capable as a playmaker if this is how he is forced to attack.
While he will continue to say all the right things publicly, Gilgeous-Alexander is well aware this matchup means a little extra. Another strong performance could unofficially crown him as the MVP, so expect his full intentions to be on making this happen. Count on the Thunder star to continue his high level of play and have an answer for whatever the Denver defense throws his way. Be confident in him recording over 45.5 combined points, rebounds and assists for the fourth straight game and second consecutive against the Nuggets.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Record Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+135)
At his core, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is at his best attacking the basket and operating in the midrange. However, he is a true three-level scorer who is more than competent at the three-point line as well. The NBA continues to evolve and the three-point shot has become more important than ever before. Gilgeous-Alexander has kept up with this trend and is taking a career-high 5.8 three-point attempts and connecting at a 37.2% rate.
This comes out to an average of 2.1 made three-pointers per game and Gilgeous-Alexander has recorded over 2.5 made three-pointers in 25 games this season. He struggled yesterday from the perimeter, shooting just 2-for-11 (18.2%) on three-point attempts. However, the All-Star guard had tallied over 2.5 made three-pointers in five of the six previous games leading up to yesterday.
Denver ranks 18th in the league in opponent three-point attempts allowed and 20th in opponent three-point percentage. Despite this, Gilgeous-Alexander has failed to connect on over 2.5 three-pointers in any of the three matchups so far. He has shot a combined 4-for-20 (20.0%) across these three matchups.
Gilgeous-Alexander has too strong of a track record as a shooter for these struggles to continue. As he looks to cement his MVP campaign, count on the Thunder guard flashing his perimeter ability and having a bit more success tonight. Count on him to brush off the 20% he is shooting from deep against the Nuggets this season and 18.2% yesterday and shooting closer to his 37.2% average on the season to connect on at least three three-pointers tonight.
