Before the trade deadline, the Western Conference playoff race looked to be relatively stable. But since then, it has changed dramatically. The Golden State Warriors acquired Jimmy Butler and have since climbed to sixth in the conference, while the Dallas Mavericks took a nosedive after trading Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers and seeing Kyrie Irving suffer a season-ending torn ACL. The Mavericks are in danger of falling out of the playoffs entirely, one and a half games ahead of the Phoenix Suns and four ahead of the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Trail Blazers — who have lost each of their last three games — can bolster their playoff chances by beating the Warriors at Oracle Arena tonight at 10 p.m. With a loss, Portland faces a major uphill battle to the postseason, especially if Dallas beats the San Antonio Spurs on the road. Meanwhile, the Warriors can put some distance between themselves and the Play-In race.
Golden State is a 12-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-675 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 234. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers are +490 on the Moneyline.
Jimmy Butler U25.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)
When the Trail Blazers made a charge up the Western Conference standings in January — between January 19 and February 6, Portland went 10-1 with the league’s third-best net rating — one major reason was wing Toumani Camara’s defense. In fact, he won the Western Conference Defensive Player of the Month award for February after averaging 4.3 defensive rebounds, 2.0 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game in that month. The Trail Blazers have cooled off somewhat since then, going just 1-4 in March so far, but Portland is largely still in playoff contention because of the 24-year-old Belgian. He has taken more charges than anyone this season, and opponents have shot just 31.7% from deep since January 19 with him as the nearest defender.
Meanwhile, with a fully healthy Warriors team around him, Butler won’t be the primary scorer. His usage rate has fluctuated significantly since joining Golden State; he recorded at least a 20% usage rate in each of his four games with the team, as well as each of his most recent three. But in between, he had a stretch of five games in which he posted a 19% usage rate or lower, including two single-digit scoring outings. Tonight should be a lower-usage night for Butler, given that the Trail Blazers’ wing defenders — especially Camara — are much better than their guard defenders, especially 181-pound Anfernee Simons, who’s a consistent negative on that side of the ball and will be tired out by a heavy offensive burden. Expect a big game from Stephen Curry and more modest production from Butler.
Anfernee Simons 4+ Three-Pointers Made (+135)
Early this afternoon, Portland listed power forward Jerami Grant — who had returned from a four-game absence with a solid performance last night — doubtful with a knee issue, as well as ruling out Robert Williams and listing Deni Avdija as questionable with a quad injury. Without Grant and, possibly, Avdija, the Trail Blazers have severely limited offensive options for tonight’s contest. Camara and rookie center Donovan Clingan are both defensive-oriented players, leaving guard Anfernee Simons as the primary offensive hub. Simons has attempted 20 or more shots in four of his last five games — three of which Grant missed — and has hit four or more three-pointers in three of his last five games. Since trading for Butler, the Warriors have allowed only the sixth-fewest made threes per game on average efficiency, but Simons should put up plenty of volume.
Draymond Green O1.5 Steals (-125)
The 2016-17 Defensive Player of the Year and former steals champion had seen his ball-swiping abilities decline somewhat in the last few seasons, but so far in 2024-25, he’s bounced back with a 2.2% steal rate and 1.3 steals per game, both of which were his highest since the 2021-22 campaign. He’s been especially effective playing alongside a fellow aggressive and intense defender in Butler. In 12 games playing alongside Butler, Green has recorded two or more steals nine times and averaged 2.2 steals per game.
Plus, Portland has struggled with turnovers recently. Over the last month, they’ve allowed opponents to rack up 9.3 steals per game, the sixth-most in the league. Scoot Henderson, Camara, and Shaedon Sharpe all rank in the league’s top half in turnover rate among 117 players who have played at least 25 minutes per game and appeared in at least 10 games in the last month. Since February 10, the Trail Blazers have allowed the 11th-most points off turnovers per game, while Golden State has scored the most points off turnovers.
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