It is a loaded night in the NBA with the playoffs beginning to inch closer. Twelve games are set to take place tonight with every matchup seeming to hold a little extra weight.
Five games will tip-off at 7:30 p.m. ET with some significant implications in the lottery odds with the Nets, 76ers, Jazz, Wizards, Hornets and Raptors each playing in this window. Then, at 8:00 p.m. ET, a rematch of yesterday’s MVP matchup between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder and Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets will take place. In addition, the Magic will take on the Rockets while the Suns face the Grizzlies.
The San Antonio Spurs will host the Dallas Mavericks in the lone game taking place at 8:30 p.m. ET. Then at 10:00 p.m. ET, the Portland Trail Blazers will play the Golden State Warriors before the final matchup of the night between the Sacramento Kings and the New York Knicks tips. This will be the second straight night the Kings close down the NBA slate as they attempt to bounce back from a loss at the buzzer last night on a shot by Kawhi Leonard.
With plenty of NBA action ahead, here are my favorite prop bets for Monday’s slate.
Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 Rebounds (-115)
The Toronto Raptors have their eyes set directly on the NBA lottery as they currently hold the fifth-worst record in the league in what is turning into a tight race. The organization has begun going to some lengths to maximize its chances. This will be in effect tonight with Jakob Poeltl, Ja’Kobe Walter, Ochai Agbaji, Jonathan Mogbo, Gradey Dick and Brandon Ingram all set to miss tonight’s matchup with the Wizards.
Scottie Barnes will not be a player looking to skip out on games with his contract implications on the line. The former All-Star has played 50 games so far this season and needs to play 65 games to be eligible for an All-NBA team. While this will be a tough list to crack even if Barnes does reach this number, it is the difference between earning $225 million or $270 million over the next five years due to the max-scale rookie extension he signed.
Barnes has shown no signs of slowing down while he has been on the floor. The Florida State product is averaging 19.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game on the season. He has tallied over 7.5 rebounds in 28 of the 50 games this season and will have an inside track for increased rebounding production with Poeltl set to miss tonight. The Wizards rank dead last in the NBA in opponent rebounds allowed and 18th in total rebounds as a team. While he fell under his rebounding prop in the previous matchup with the Wizards, Barnes recorded 13 and 12 rebounds in the two games prior. Count on him to take advantage of Poeltl’s absence and Washington’s weakness by recording over 7.5 rebounds tonight.
D’Angelo Russell Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+100)
The Brooklyn Nets will take on the Los Angeles Lakers tonight in what will be an interesting revenge matchup for D’Angelo Russell. The former No. 2 pick is in his second stint with the Nets after starting the season with his second stint on the Lakers. This will not be the full-strength Lakers as LeBron James suffered a groin strain in the matchup against the Celtics and is set to miss some time. In addition, Dorian Finney-Smith will miss due to an ankle injury, Rui Hachimura remains out and Jaxson Hayes and Luka Doncic are both questionable.
Regardless of who is on the floor, expect D’Angelo Russell to be ready to come out firing. Across his first 20 games back with the Nets, Russell is averaging 14.1 points, 5.7 assists and 2.8 rebounds. He has struggled from deep, connecting on 31.8% of his perimeter shots while attempting 6.5 three-pointers per game.
Throughout his career, Russell has shot 36.6% from beyond the three-point arc and connected on 41.5% of his perimeter shots last season. He shot 4-for-11 on three-point attempts last game and has connected on over 2.5 made three-pointers in eight games with the Nets, even amid the struggles. This includes a previous matchup with the Lakers in which he shot 5-for-10 on three-pointers in just his second game back with Brooklyn. Look for him to replicate this type of performance and show an increased willingness to play in attack mode against his former teammates. Count on him recording over 2.5 made three-pointers for the ninth time since returning to the Nets and the second time already against the Lakers.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 44.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-120)
All eyes of the NBA world will be on the matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets for the second straight day. The Thunder produced a convincing 127-103 victory over the Nuggets last night in which Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 40 points, eight rebounds and five assists. The magnitude of the moment was not lost on the MVP favorite who very well may have the chance to cement his resume with another convincing win over Jokic tonight.
Looking at the numbers, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging a league-leading 32.9 points per game, 5.1 rebounds and 6.2 assists. The Thunder star is on a heater and has recorded over 44.5 points, rebounds and assists in three straight games. He is averaging 44.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 6.7 assists across this stretch while shooting 54% from the field and 40% on three-point attempts.
While he will surely say all the right things publicly, count on this matchup meaning more for Gilgeous-Alexander with the MVP trophy in mind. The three-time All-Star attacked yesterday’s matchup with an increased intensity, attempting his second-most shots with 32 in a game and 11 coming from beyond the three-point arc. It would not shock me if Denver changes its defensive strategy and forces Gilgeous-Alexander to be more of a playmaker. He is more than capable as a passer and is still the caliber of scorer you cannot fully shut down. For this reason, I am looking toward the combined points, rebounds and assists and backing the Thunder star to eclipse 44.5 combined for the fourth straight game.
OG Anunoby Over 24.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-110)
The New York Knicks will close down the night’s slate in a matchup with the Sacramento Kings. Their outlook has shifted following the unfortunate rolled ankle suffered by Jalen Brunson. The severity and recovery time for the star guard is still being established but New York surely will not reach its peak without him. Regardless, the action continues on the court and the rest of the roster must make up for his absence.
Look toward OG Anunoby to take on a chunk of this responsibility tonight. On the season, Anunoby is averaging 16.4 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game. He has recorded over 24.5 combined points, rebounds and assists in 27 games this season. Looking at the matchup, the Kings rank 19th in opponent points allowed, 16th in opponent rebounds allowed and 17th in opponent field-goal percentage. They will also continue to be without Domantas Sabonis and the league-leading 14.1 rebounds he provides.
Expect Anunoby to see his offensive opportunity grow without Brunson on the floor and for him to have success rebounding the basketball against this team. This is the second matchup between these two teams, with Anunoby finishing with 33 points, four assists and three rebounds in the first game. In addition, he has recorded over 24.5 combined points, rebounds and assists in five of the past six games. Look for him to build off this strong stretch and eclipse this total in the final game of the night.
