The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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The Field
THE PLAYERS Championship is the first big event on the golfing calendar for 2025. While not technically a major, THE PLAYERS still possesses a 144-man major-caliber field and one of the biggest prize pools of the season (25M and 4.5M to first place). There will be 144 players teeing it up, which is expanded from the 72 players we saw last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, with the top 125 from the previous season’s FedEx Cup points list making up the majority of the qualifiers.
A great field is part of what makes THE PLAYERS special, but it also has a host course in TPC Sawgrass that brings a lot of volatility and scoring swings into play with its smaller greens and precariously placed water hazards. For DFS purposes, this event is one of the toughest to navigate, as the elite players tend to miss cuts at Sawgrass at a higher rate than any other event on the schedule — hence, getting 6/6 players through the cutline for DFS is always a huge accomplishment.
This event has produced some shock-type winners for betting, as well, with Craig Perks (2002) and, more recently, Si Woo Kim (2017). The last five iterations have also seen names like Lee Westwood, Jim Furyk, and Anirban Lahiri finish in the runner-up position.
Despite the elevated event status, the cut line at the PLAYERS remains the same as a regular PGA TOUR stop in that the top 65 players (and ties) will get to play the weekend after Friday.
The Course
TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida)
Par 72, 7,275 yards depending on setup; Greens: TifEagle Bermuda (overseeded with Poa trivialis)
TPC Sawgrass is a stadium course that was designed and created specifically for this event in 1981. It was designed by Pete Dye (his wife Alice is responsible for the island green on 17), who has also designed a lot of courses in the PGA TOUR rotation, including Hilton Head at the RBC Heritage and TPC Stadium, host of the American Express. Sawgrass features hard-to-hit, smaller-than-normal greens and water that comes into play on nearly every hole (17/18). While it’s got some links to the other Florida venues, such as PGA National, we generally see venues like Colonial, TPC Scottsdale, Sedgefield, and Harbour Town golf links provide the best correlation for results.
The course itself is set up as a traditional par 72 (four par 5s and four par 3s), but each hole presents a unique challenge to players. While the 17th island green can be tricky on Sunday, it’s the 18th hole that plays as one of the hardest on the course every year and requires a pinpoint drive over water to a narrow fairway on a semi-dogleg setup. The rest of the course is made up of risk-reward par 5s and a couple of treacherous if less well-known, par 3s. As for the par 4s, five of them come in at 450 yards or more and tend to stress longer approaches, while only three will play at under 400 for the week.
The fairways at Sawgrass are generally easier to hit than an average PGA TOUR stop, but placement on certain sides is still key. Three of the last four winners of the PLAYERS (Scheffler, Thomas and McIlroy) gained multiple strokes off the tee, but it’s worth noting that 2022 winner Cameron Smith lost over 5.0 strokes off the tee. Last season, Scottie Scheffler defended his PLAYERS title from 2023 by gaining 6.4 strokes off the tee and another 6.4 strokes on approach. Being accurate off the tee can keep you out of a lot of trouble and allow you to go pin hunting on these smaller greens.
Smith’s splits from 2022 are extreme and not likely to be repeated anytime soon, but it still emphasizes the point that if a player is hitting his irons well AND scrambling/putting well at Sawgrass, he has a chance (even if his off-the-tee game is sub-par). GIR%’s at Sawgrass, historically, are well below the PGA average (3-6%), and scrambling is also tougher than normal at Sawgrass (5% below the TOUR average). On that note, one thing the last five winners now all have in common is that they gained OVER 6.0 strokes on approach for the week — and finished top six for the week in the strokes gained approach stat. Average Proximity, SG: APP and GIR% are all key indicators for this week.
The move to March in 2019 has seen scoring stay on the easier side, with greens playing a little softer (as the Bermuda grass here is still somewhat dormant in March). This year’s forecast could shift the advantage back to Sawgrass, which remains a rather open Florida venue that can play immensely tougher when the wind is up. As of now, the forecast for the weekend has gusts as high as 20-25mph on Sunday, which could make this a lower-scoring affair and place an even bigger emphasis on scrambling. The full forecast breakdown is below.
2025 Weather Outlook: The weather this year could be more impactful than we’ve seen in the past couple of seasons. Thursday starts with mild gusts that may reach 10+ mph in spots. However, overall, the first day seems solid, with no indication of a huge advantage for one side of the draw. Day 2 or Friday, has winds picking up in the afternoon, specifically around 2-3 PM local, which could mean late starters on Friday have a disadvantage as gusts may approach 20mph by 5 PM that day (something to keep in mind for one-day lineups and classic builds). The weekend has gusts building again on Saturday, so early starters could have an advantage (again). Sunday looks like it could be the worst day, with winds set to be around 10-15 MPH and gusts in the 20+ mph range all day. Short games will likely be tested this season and being on the right side of the draw may provide a large advantage (depending on how Friday afternoon works out).
Last 5 winners
2024–Scottie Scheffler -20 (over 3 players at -19)
2023—Scottie Scheffler -17 (over Tyrrell Hatton -12)
2022—Cameron Smith -13 (over Anirban Lahiri -12)
2021—Justin Thomas -14 (over Lee Westwood -13)
2020—COVID-19 (no event)
2019—Rory McIlroy -16 (over Jim Furyk -15)
Winning Trends
– 11 of the last 13 winners of THE PLAYERS had already achieved a T4 or better finish on the PGA TOUR in the same calendar year of their victory.
– 15 of the last 16 winners of THE PLAYERS had achieved a finish of 23rd or better at THE PLAYERS in a previous year.
– The last seven winners of THE PLAYERS had all finished T22 or better in their previous start (aka, the one directly prior to their PLAYERS win).
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2024 Winner: Scottie Scheffler (20-under par)
2024 lead-in form ( win-T10-T3-T6-T17)
SG: OTT—+6.4
SG: APP—+6.4
SG: TTG—+15.9
SG: ATG—+3.1
SG: PUTT—+1.2
- Since 2011, only two winners (Simpson 2018, Smith 2022) have finished outside the top 10 for the week in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green stats. Simpson and Smith both were massively positive with the putter for the weeks of their win, with great around-the-green stats as well.
- Players at Sawgrass have excelled in a variety of different ways, but good play around the green has been one of the biggest constants. Greens here are small, and GIR%’s are generally well below the PGA TOUR average for the event.
- The last seven winners here have all gained +1.5 strokes or more around the greens for the week of their win and five of the past eight winners have gained +3.0 strokes or more around the greens (Scheffler gained 5 strokes ATG in 2023 and 3.1 in 2024).
- Four of the last 10 winners didn’t crack the top twenty in Off the Tee stats for the week of their win, but seven of the last eight winners have gained +4.0 strokes Approach or more for the week.
- From an approach perspective, Sawgrass requires a good blend of shorter (125-150 yards) and longer approaches (>200 yards). The dogleg setups and risk-reward par 5s mean good long-iron players will have a big advantage here.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Russel Henley +3000 and $9,500
Comparables:
- Daniel Berger +6000 and $9,600
- Sungjae Im +5000 and $9,700
- Hideki Matsuyama +3000 and $9,900
Corey Conners +5500 and $7,900
Comparables:
- Davis Thompson +11000 and $7,900
- Taylor Pendrith +9000 and $8,300
- Tom Kim +8000 and $8,500
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Brian Harman ($7,600 best finishes: T2 – 2024, T3- 2021): Harmon’s second-place finish at TPC Sawgrass last year was the second top-five finish he’s recorded at this venue over the past five seasons. He’s got a nice blend of accurate short irons and putting upside that has always allowed him to flourish at this venue.
2. Scottie Scheffler ($12,800 best finishes: win-2023 and 2024): Scheffler proved that he’s still the king of these accuracy-driven venues on the PGA with his second straight win at Sawgrass last year, a performance that saw him gain an ungodly 12.8 strokes ball-striking alone. He’s yet to explode for a win in 2025, but it does feel close.
3. Justin Thomas ($10,100 best finishes: win-2021): The 2021 winner of this event also finished T3 at Sawgrass in 2016 and only has one missed cut at THE PLAYERS in nine appearances. He’s striking the ball well, but the rest of his game still puts him behind the eight-ball too often. He’ll still have a great shot at improving on his MC from last season this week.
4. Keegan Bradley ($7,700; best finishes: T5-2020, T7-2018): Bradley has missed the cut at Sawgrass in each of the past two seasons, but the veteran has the kind of consistent tee-to-green game that often keeps him out of trouble in Florida. He has done well around the Sawgrass greens, gaining strokes ATG at this event in four of the past six seasons.
5. Si Woo Kim ($8,200; best finishes: win-2017): 2017 shock winner Si Woo Kim has shown a solid penchant for playing well on tricky Pete Dye designs. He finished T23 at this event on his first attempt in 2016 and won on his second in 2017. Kim has made the cut in seven of eight appearances at THE PLAYERS, with his only blemish being a WD (injury) from 2022. He also has a win at the AMEX, which is played on TPC Stadium, another Dye design.
Recent Form
1. Russell Henley ($9,500, win-T6): Won the fifth event of his career last week with a gutsy back-nine. He gained 10.0 strokes putting + ATG last week, which is unsustainable but noteworthy nonetheless.
2. Keegan Bradley ($7,700, T5-T34): Bradley is tearing the cover off the ball right now. He’s gained over 4.0 strokes on approach in each of his last two starts and had the round of the day at the API last Sunday.
3. Aaron Rai ($7,100, T11-T4): Rai is another player coming in with some sneaky great form. The veteran has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in each of his last two starts and saw his around-the-green game take a tick up last week. He finished T19 at the PLAYERS in 2023.
4. Collin Morikawa ($10,500, T2nd-T17): Morikawa couldn’t close last week but put in another great performance. He now has three runner-up finishes over his last six starts and gained 8.4 strokes ball-striking last week at Bay Hill.
5. Michael Kim ($5,900, T4-T6): Kim is on a serious heater right now. He’s finished T4 and T6 in his last two starts, both in Florida, and has gained strokes across all major categories in five straight events, a serious accomplishment.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Hit the easy button with Scheffler / Kim combo
The prices for several quality names are extremely low this week, making it easy to start a solid core lineup with the most expensive player and two-time defending champion, Scottie Scheffler ($12,800). The most obvious player to stack with Scheffler would be Michael Kim ($5,900), who I mentioned above and is playing as solid as anyone across all facets of the game and doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near 5.9k in price. A Kim-Scheffler start still leaves you with an above 7,800 average for the last four players and names like Aaron Rai ($7,100) and Ben Griffin ($6,700) stick out as logical options to use if you are looking to stack more names above the 8.5k line. Overall, it’s a week where you need to identify some of these extreme values on the board and nail your upper-tier choices to ensure a decent week.
Tournaments: Schauffele could be the right pivot.
It wasn’t the greatest week for Xander Schauffele ($11,100) at Bay Hill, but the American did close well with a 69 and is likely to be very low-owned this week. Given all the lower-priced options in play under 6k for GPPs, using Schauffele alongside either McIlroy or Scheffler this week has a lot of appeal from a game theory standpoint. Underneath him, I also expect some quality names in the 8k range to be under-owned as well. Will Zalatoris ($8,800) may not get the same love that other players with better recent results in his range will get in terms of ownership, but he gained big off the tee and on approach last week and has won at the very similar TPC Southwind. Other potential lower-owned options this week include Tom Kim ($8,500), Ricky Fowler ($6,600), Harry Hall ($6,500), Nicolai Hojgaard ($5,700) and Davis Riley ($5,000 – see below).
MY PICK: Sepp Straka ($9,900)
Straka has been on a heater most of the season. The Austrian won early on in January at the Amex, another course hosted by a Pete Dye design in TPC Stadium. Since then, he’s gone on to bag top 15 finishes in four of five starts and finished an impressive T5 last week at Bay Hill, gaining 4.0 strokes on approach and 6.2 strokes on the greens. On top of ranking 5th in SG Approach stats over the last 24 rounds, he’s also 6th in Approach proximity and ranks 11th or better in four of the five proximity ranges between 75-200 yards (last 24 rounds).
Straka’s pinpoint accuracy makes TPC Sawgrass a potentially great landing spot for him, and over his career, he’s shown he’s not afraid of taking on similar challenges. To go along with his early season win at TPC Stadium, he’s also grabbed wins at TPC Deere Run and PGA National and had runner-up finishes at TPC Southwind and the Open Championship in 2023.
Unlike some of the other top competitors, who seem like they may be trying to peak for April, Straka comes in primed after last week and has plenty of PLAYERS experience to draw on as well, having finished T9 at this event in 2022 and T16 last season. Playing what is undoubtedly the best golf of his life, I expect Straka to challenge this week and potentially bag what would undoubtedly be the biggest win of his career.
For DFS, I expect he’ll draw attention at just $8,600 but pairing him with another lower-owned option from his range will help keep ownership levels down. For betting, The +5000 outright price on the DraftKings Sportsbook, makes him one of my favorite mid-tier names to target.
MY SLEEPER: Davis Riley ($5,000)
Davis Riley popping for a big week out of nowhere would be shocking, but it also may not crack the top five for strangest results we’ve seen at this event over the past five seasons, a tournament that saw 49-year-old Jim Furyk finish runner-up in 2019.
The American is also starting to show some confidence again — finally — after enduring a long drought of poor play after his surprise win at Colonial in 2024. He started the Cognizant Classic off with a round of 63 and then posted three solid rounds in Puerto Rico last week to place T6, his first top 10 finish on the PGA since his win last year.
Riley has missed the cut at this event in both of his previous attempts, but his overall body of work suggests that one day he could make some noise at Sawgrass. On top of winning at another accuracy-driven venue in Colonial, he also lost in a playoff at Copperhead, another tighter Florida venue, and placed T8 at Bay Hill in 2023.
At the very least, Riley offers the exact kind of boom or bust upside we want to target IF you’re interested in using a player at the bare minimum in your GPP builds on DraftKings. While his downside includes shooting himself out of the event after the first six holes, if his solid play from the last two events continues, he’s also talented enough to potentially set himself up for a run at top 10 or better on Sunday.
For betting, the +1100 on a top 20 result on the DraftKings Sportsbook is also another way you could get exposure to Riley’s upside, who could just be rounding into form to make some noise this week.
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