The NBA is in the midst of an incredible stretch of basketball. There have been high-level games and marquee matchups on a nightly basis with this Sunday’s slate no different.
An MVP matchup kicked off the day with Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets traveling to face Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder. This comes just two days after Jokic became the first player in NBA history to record 30+ points, 20+ rebounds and 20+ assists in a game during the Nuggets’ overtime victory against the Suns and added a little twist to the MVP race.
Then at 3:30 p.m. ET, the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks will face off with the outlook of each organization looking far more bleak than they expected entering the season. At 7:00 pm. ET, the New Orleans Pelicans will host the Memphis Grizzlies in what will be the ninth matchup between Zion Williamson and Ja Morant. Injury issues have provided more hurdles for both of these young stars who were the first and second overall picks in the 2019 draft.
At 7:30 p.m. ET, the Philadelphia 76ers will take on the Utah Jazz in an intriguing game from a lottery odds perspective. Then the Milwaukee Bucks will play the Cleveland Cavaliers while the San Antonio Spurs face the Minnesota Timberwolves with both matchups tipping off at 8:00 p.m. ET. The late slate is on the lighter side with the Portland Trail Blazers hosting the Detroit Pistons at 9:00 p.m. ET. Finally, at 9:30 p.m. ET, the Los Angeles Clippers will host the Sacramento Kings for the final matchup of the night.
With plenty of NBA action ahead, here are my favorite prop bets for Sunday’s slate.
Zach Edey Over 9.5 Points (-135)
The matchup between Zion Williamson and Ja Morant will steal the headlines, but look for Zach Edey to make a statement in today’s matchup. The 7-foot-4 big man has done a nice job adjusting to the NBA style and carved out a role for himself on this Grizzlies team. On the season, Edey is averaging 9.3 points and 7.8 rebounds across his 20.9 minutes per game. He has recorded over 9.5 points in 21 of the 49 games he has played, including both the previous matchups with the Pelicans.
New Orleans is a difficult team to evaluate with injuries being the clear driving force of its underwhelming season. It ranks 26th in opponent points allowed, 27th in opponent rebounds allowed and 29th in opponent points in the paint allowed. It is fair to push back that these numbers look worse than the situation due to injuries, but guys like Herb Jones and Dejounte Murray will not be coming back this season.
Expect fellow rookie Yves Missi to be the primary matchup with Edey, though Kelly Olynyk, Karlo Matkovic and even Williamson may also try their hand. None of these matchups should strike too much fear, so expect Edey to assert himself on the interior. Edey is averaging 11.1 points per game over his past five. He finished with 13 and 14 points in the two previous games against the Pelicans while logging 23+ minutes in each. Count on this level of opportunity to be available to the Grizzlies rookie again and for him to have success cleaning up around the basket. Look for him to record over 9.5 points for the 22nd time this season as the Pelicans have no true answer for Edey’s size and touch around the rim.
Andre Drummond Over 24.5 Points & Rebounds (-120)
There are some ugly levels of tanking taking place across the NBA, with the matchup between the Philadelphia 76ers and Utah Jazz headlining the list today. The Jazz have already ruled out Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, Jordan Clarkson, Walker Kessler and Collin Sexton for this matchup. Philadelphia will continue to be without Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey as it has now dropped to 21-41 on the season. Despite the organizational intentions of increasing its odds at a good draft pick, someone must still produce on the floor.
Enter Andre Drummond, who has been underwhelming in his return to Philadelphia this season. A toe injury has derailed a chunk of his season but Drummond is back healthy and expected to suit up as the team’s starting center for the sixth straight game. It should be noted that he was a late addition to the injury report with an illness and is now listed as questionable. Drummond is averaging 7.4 points and 7.9 rebounds in his 18.8 minutes per game on the season but has seen expanded opportunity as of late. He is averaging 11.0 points and 11.6 rebounds across his past five games as a starter and will have little interior resistance against this Jazz team.
On the season, Utah ranks 28th in opponent points allowed and 23rd in opponent points in the paint. This comes while Kessler and Markkanen have been mostly on the floor. Drummond is a former All-Star who has led the NBA in rebounding four times and averaged a double-double eight seasons in his career. He has recorded over 24.5 combined points and rebounds twice this season and has a clear path for his largest output of the season in this matchup. Look for him to take advantage of the shorthanded Jazz roster and be at the heart of the Sixers’ production tonight.
Darius Garland Over 19.5 Points (-110)
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the best stories in the NBA this season as they maintain the best record in basketball and became the first team to officially clinch a spot in the playoffs. There are plenty of reasons for their improvement, but Darius Garland’s improved play deserves more flowers than he has gotten. The Vanderbilt product had a tough season last year with some strange eye issues and bothersome injuries. Garland bounced back this year to earn his second All-Star appearance and is averaging 21.0 points, 6.7 assists and 2.5 rebounds on the season.
Cleveland will take on the Milwaukee Bucks tonight, which is an intriguing Eastern Conference battle. The Bucks have stuck around in the Eastern Conference and shown some impressive flashes this season. Milwaukee sits in fourth place in the East and ranks 12th in opponent points per game this season. Damian Lillard has looked much sharper this season but still has some concerns on the defensive end. Expect Donovan Mitchell to be prioritized in the Bucks’ perimeter defensive game plan and for Garland to be able to capitalize on the matchup with Lillard.
Garland has recorded over 19.5 points in 34 of the 59 games he has played this season. He erupted for 39 points, his second-highest scoring output of the season, in a previous matchup with the Bucks this season. Both these teams rank in the top 10 in pace, so expect there to be plenty of opportunities to score. Garland is coming off a 20-point performance against the Hornets on Friday so look for him to replicate this tonight by dropping over 19.5 points for the 35th time this season.
DeMar DeRozan Under 23.5 Points (-110)
The final matchup of tonight’s slate will be between the Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Clippers. Sacramento’s outlook greatly shifted following the trade of De’Aaron Fox, who made his return to the city in the previous game. The Kings will continue on and face a more difficult defense tonight. On the season, the Clippers rank fourth in opponent points allowed, ninth in opponent field-goal percentage and ninth in opponent three-point percentage.
Across his first 57 games with the Kings, DeMar DeRozan is averaging 22.2 points, 4.0 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game. Across the 14 games since Fox was traded, DeRozan has seen his averages grow to 24.3 points, 5.2 assists and 4.9 rebounds. Even still, this number is a bit inflated due to a 42-point performance against the Mavericks. The six-time All-Star has been held under 23.5 points in nine of these 14 games and 33 of the 57 games on the season overall.
This includes both the previous matchups with the Clippers in which DeRozan produced scoring outputs of 13 and 16 points. Los Angeles plays a hard-nosed defensive style, which will have an impact on DeRozan again tonight. Expect him to have a difficult time getting to his spots in the midrange with Kawhi Leonard, Derrick Jones Jr. and Kris Dunn each likely to spend some time on him. The Kings have played at the fourth-slowest pace over the past 10 games while the Clippers are 20th in pace on the season. Don’t expect there to be an abundance of offensive opportunities and for DeRozan to ultimately be held short of reaching 23.5 points for the sixth time in the past seven games.
