NASCAR makes its 2025 oval debut Sunday. As always, trust the data but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway.
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Race Winner — Shriners Children’s 500
Christopher Bell +650
Ring the bell again. Joe Gibbs finally signed off on offseason racing. Bell hit the dirt and beat Kyle Larson for a Tulsa Shootout Championship in a photo finish in December. He raced again in the Chili Bowl Nationals. The kid stayed sharp and it shows. He’s won two weeks in a row at vastly different tracks—a superspeedway and road course. Winning at Phoenix should be a layup compared to his wins over the last two weeks.
JGR and Bell dominated in the desert last spring. Bell made a late-race charge from 20th to first after a Lap 221 restart, leaving his teammate Ty Gibbs (third) in the desert dust with a four-tire pit stop that was faster than the roadrunner. The fifth-place run in the fall showed he’s no one-hit wonder—restarts kept him in the hunt, even if the lead slipped away late. Phoenix loves a driver who can pounce when the green drops, and Bell’s +20 restart gains from 2024 prove he’s that guy. With option tires shaking things up for this weekend’s race, his late-race surges could cash in big. Bet on him to park it in victory lane—he’s a favorite for a reason.
Chris Buescher +2800
No one likes to bet on Buescher. RFK never gets respect. The brand for both is bland. The stats tell a different story. Buescher and his team aren’t the best but they’re good at everything. He checks the boxes for pit stop and restart speeds. His track history checks out—top-10 finish in four of the last six Phoenix races. Last but not least, he’s got speed this weekend. Besides being near the top of the practice charts, RFK is known to take chances with race strategy. Phoenix is a track where strategy can be decisive.
Joey Logano +750
Logano’s got Phoenix Raceway on a leash. His 2024 Cup Series Championship win at Phoenix was a restart clinic. Lap 259 flipped the script—he bolted from fifth to first. That +4 restart move wasn’t his only shine—his +25 season restart tally screams clutch. Spring’s 34th-place flop stung. Team Penske didn’t adjust to the short-track package at the beginning of 2024. Logano—mired in traffic—wrecked on a restart in the spring Phoenix race. The fall erased that noise with a trophy. He thrives when cautions fly, and Phoenix’s 10-12 yellows in 2025 could hand him the keys again. Pit strategy’s his ace—Penske’s speed keeps him upfront for those critical restarts.
