There is nothing quite like a small major, one-bid conference championship game. Two schools with a fraction of the funding that power conference programs enjoy battling tooth and nail to punch their ticket to the Tournament. The sheer desperation and will to win is mesmerizing. It is no surprise that, more often than not, these smaller conference title games are back-and-forth battles.
The first such conference championship tilt on Sunday comes in Johnson City, Tennessee (yes, this is the first time I’ve heard of Johnson City too) for the Big South crown. 3-seeded Winthrop takes on the top dog, High Point, to see who will go dancing.
Don’t act like you’re bigger than the Big South Championship. Stick around; I’ll break this matchup down and give you something to consider.
(3) Winthrop vs. (1) High Point (12pm ET)
High Point has been the story of the Big South all season long. Head Coach Alan Huss is in his second season at the helm, both of which have resulted in regular season titles. While last year’s squad faltered from February-onward and ultimately lost in the semifinals, the ’24-25 Panthers are boiling lava hot down the stretch. High Point enters Sunday on a 13-game win streak (2nd highest nationally) having won 9 of those 13 by 10+. Two of those double-digit wins were by 22 and happened to come against Winthrop, their challenger. Despite this recent domination by High Point, Winthrop has won 10 of its last 11 and enters the matchup as a 7.5-point underdog. It’s safe to say the Eagles have their hands full to get back to the Tourney for the first time since 2021.
It is extremely clear that there will be a lot of points in this game. High Point boasts the #23 ranked offensive efficiency per KenPom, but my focus is on when Winthrop has the ball.
Orchestrated by senior point guard Kasen Harrison, the Eagles play at a blistering pace (15.5 average possession length, 2.1 seconds below national average per Ken Pom) that attacks and seeks out contact. Winthrop is atop the country in free throw attempt rate relative to field goal attempts (KenPom), and High Point has a bit of a fouling problem (284th in the same category on defense). Foul trouble will likely be the reality for the Panthers, especially for forward Kimani Hamilton (2.9 fouls per game) who will surely take on the assignment of covering either Kelton Talford (15.8 ppg) or KJ Doucet (14.1 ppg).
Yes, Winthrop is far from lights out at the stripe (66.3% as a team), but an improved recent stretch of shooting should supplement FT woes. Since January 28th, the day Winthrop began their 10-1 push, the Eagles are shooting just under 41% from 3 (12th nationally over that span per Bart Torvik) and 56% from 2 (48th).
Is it alarming that Winthrop only mustered 62 and 66 points, respectively, in their two blowout losses to High Point? Definitely, but there’s a firm case to be made of poor shooting luck for the Eagles in those games (combined 9/45 on 3-point attempts). Since that second L to the Panthers, Winthrop has scored 80+ in 5 straight games and has shot much better from the outside. If the Eagles can dictate the pace, continuously get to the line and avoid catastrophe from beyond the arc, I see them eclipsing their team total comfortably.
