It has been a loaded day of college basketball with plenty of high-level hoops already in the books. The action isn’t over though, with USC vs. UCLA being one of the final matchups of the night. With the final push before conference tournaments and NCAA Tournament implications in mind, look for each of these Big Ten teams to put their best effort on the floor.
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams with UCLA producing an 82-76 victory in the first game. The Bruins were able to keep USC at arm’s length throughout the game despite several comeback attempts. It was a bit of a strange matchup in which UCLA attempted just 16 three-point attempts while USC shot 57.9% at the free-throw line. This matchup took place at USC, while tonight’s match will take place at Pauley Pavilion in front of the UCLA faithful.
UCLA enters tonight as a 9.5-point favorite and -485 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. USC holds +370 odds for an outright victory and the game total is set at 142.5 for this matchup.
UCLA Analysis
UCLA holds a record of 21-9 on the season. They are 12-7 in Big Ten conference play and 9-7 against Quad 1 opponents. The Bruins also suffered a Quad 2 loss to Rutgers and a Quad 3 loss to Minnesota. Their most notable wins have been over Gonzaga, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Oregon twice. They also are 14-2 when playing at home this season.
The Bruins play a defensive brand of basketball. They rank 25th in the country in opponent points allowed, limiting teams to 65.1 points per game. UCLA forces 15.1 turnovers per game which is the 12th-highest rate in the country and the driving force of why opponents are attempting the seventh-fewest shot attempts per game.
There are far more struggles on the offensive end as the Bruins average 74.4 points per game. This ranks 163rd in the country. The vast majority of their attack occurs inside the arc with UCLA attempting just 20.5 three-pointers per game, which ranks 271st in the country. They still make the most of these opportunities, connecting on 35.1% of the long-range shots, which ranks 120th.
Tyler Bilodeau headlines the scoring, averaging 14.1 points and 4.4 rebounds, and leading the team in three-point percentage at 42.2%. Eric Dailey Jr. also adds 11.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 1.5 assists. Sebastian Mack, Kobe Johnson, Skyy Clark, and Dylan Andrews each also pitch in over seven points per game.
USC Analysis
It has been a disappointing season for USC, who hold a 15-15 overall record on the season. Eric Musselman’s squad is 7-12 in Big Ten play. They have gone just 3-11 against Quad 1 opponents, 3-2 in Quad 2 matchups, and are 3-2 when facing Quad 3 teams. Their most impressive wins have been over Illinois, Nebraska, and Michigan State.
The Trojans have fared well offensively but struggle greatly to get stops. They are averaging 76.9 points per game and rank 28th in field goal percentage, as well as 44th in three-point percentage. Despite the success from the perimeter, USC attempts just 19.3 three-pointers per game which ranks 321st in the country.
Defensively, USC is giving up 74.5 points per game which ranks 249th in the country. Opponents are shooting 45.6% from the field against them and they have conceded 80+ points in 12 games this season.
Desmond Claude headlines the scoring attack with 15.8 points, 4.4 assists, and 3.8 rebounds per game. Wesley Yates III and Chibuzo Agbo also add 13.6 and 12.2 points per game.
The Pick: Over 142.5
The first matchup between these two teams finished with 158 points. There was still some scoring production left on the table in that matchup. The two teams combined for just 13 fast-break points in this game while USC shot just 57.9% at the free-throw line. The over/under was set at 138.5 points leading into this matchup and it is surprising to me the line hasn’t shifted more.
My lean is for UCLA to cover the -9.5 but I have far more confidence in the points being put up. Tonight will also be UCLA’s senior night, which typically brings a spark of energy to a program. However, the Bruins are 0-10 in their last 10 senior nights, including losing to USC last year.
Expect the Bruins to have success attacking this porous USC defense and for this to be the pathway to the over. They have scored as many as 111 points in a game this season and recorded 80+ points in nine games, including the previous matchup with USC. With USC having given up 80+ points in 12 outings already, the pathway to this being a higher-scoring affair than usual is clear.
This rivalry matchup does not hold as much bite as plenty of their previous meetings, but sit back and watch these offenses work. While UCLA will hang their hats on the defensive end, they are far more competent offensively than the Trojans’ defensive effort. Expect the Bruins to have more success getting out in transition in the second matchup and for the point total to eclipse 142.5 points in this cross-town rivalry.
