It’s Senior Night in The Swamp! After a thorough walloping of SEC rival Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Wednesday night, the Gators head back home to host Ole Miss and celebrate all the to-be graduates in the orange-and-blue. Ole Miss, however, is fresh off a rather expensive—if totally thrilling—celebration on their own home court against the Tennessee Volunteers. What better way to cap off the regular season than a chance to spoil someone’s fun after you’ve just elevated your own? I preview my prediction, pick, and best bet for this heater of a Florida/Ole Miss game today below.
Here’s how I’m playing it. Follow me on my handle @dansby_edits for more college hoops plays, especially with the tournaments right around the corner!
Ole Miss vs. Florida college basketball preview
It’s silly to utter, but when the Gators are dominating, it almost feels a little to me like UConn in 2024. I’m not whatsoever saying the 2025 Gators are of the same quality of that legendary Hurley squad; I’m saying the smothering effect their defense and interior offense has on other teams is so suffocating that it feels like kill runs happen once or twice per game. It’s been a frightening addition to Florida’s full-court game, and I think it’s safe to say—if you’ve been following my Gators columns, you know how high I am on this player—a fully-healthy Alex Condon is the difference-maker for this team. Potentially the difference-maker, as we’ve seen the last few nights.
He sure was against Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Wednesday, when he hung a titanic statline of: 27 points, 10 rebounds, two blocks, one steal. You read all the various write-ups on this game, his name is appearing a lot more in the analysis. And it should.
So, where has Ole Miss been the most dynamic at beating teams like Tennessee—the best defensive college team, according to KenPom. Florida’s 10th-overall, so it’s not like the Runnin’ Rebs are getting much of a disparity in team quality here, as far as defensive tiers go. Here’s your answer as to how it happened in the Vols game: Jaemyn Brakefield scored all 19 of his points in the second half, including a crucial putback with 7.5 seconds remaining. The Rebels dominated the paint, outscoring the Volunteers 46-20 in that area.
If those two things don’t happen, Ole Miss loses that game and Tennessee wins by double-digits. Lightning doesn’t strike twice.
Oh, and don’t look now, but Clayton Martin is playing his most balanced basketball—a true captain out there, looking a little bit like Jamal Shead (to mix my 2024 one-seed analogies!), and the essence of this team’s verisimilitude. I’m riding the momentum, and respecting these Gators on the road. They’re ferocious.
Best bet: Florida -12.5 (-110)
Back the Gators to cover the massive spread on the road and really show what they’re worth tonight with me in the DKN betting group here!
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