UFC 313 is taking place at T-Mobile Arena on Saturday, March 8, 2025. For the fourth time in the last 11 months, the UFC Undisputed Light Heavyweight Champion Alex ‘Poatan’ Pereira is defending his title. This time No. 1 Magomed Ankalaev steps up to try and dethrone Poatan. No. 3 Justin Gaethje faces No. 11 Rafael Fiziev in the co-main event after Dan Hooker broke his hand and withdrew from the contest.
Here are my two best bets for UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev.
Alex Pereira Moneyline (-118)
Pereira has had a UFC run unlike anyone else. He entered the UFC at 34 and has quickly ascended to the sport’s top in under four years. He is a two-division champion and has defended his light heavyweight championship three times since winning it at UFC 295 in November 2023. This is Pereira’s 11th fight in the UFC in the past 40 months.
Ankalaev may be his most formidable challenger to date, but Pereira has already defeated four former UFC champions, so overcoming the odds is something that he is used to. Pereira is the favorite in this bout at -118 on DraftKings Sportsbook. On January 18, Pereira was a +142 underdog.
Jan Blachowicz is the lone fighter Pereira has fought who excels on the ground. Even though Pereira faced difficulty in that fight, he battled back after struggling on the ground early in the contest. Pereira is the new face of the UFC and I believe that his power will end up being too much for Ankalaev to handle.
Justin Gaethje Moneyline (+130)
Gaethje’s nickname is ‘The Highlight’ and he adds it to his reel every time he is in the Octagon. He is 7-5 in the UFC and has won six fights by knockout. Although he has won two of his previous three fights, he is coming off a knockout loss to Max Holloway at UFC 300 in April 2024. Even with Gaethje winning the first matchup against Rafael Fiziev, he is the underdog in their second matchup. Fiziev is the favorite at -155 while Gaethje is +130.
Fiziev hasn’t fought in a year and a half and is on a two-fight losing streak. He hasn’t won a fight since beating Rafael Dos Anjos in July 2022. Gaethje is the taller fighter in this bout (5’11” vs. 5’8″), but Fiziev has a more significant standing reach (71.5″ vs. 70″). This fight will most likely be a battle on the feet and Gaethje is a much better striker. If Gaethje comes out to a better start, he will have a great chance to pull off the upset.
