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DraftKings NBA DFS Cheat Sheet: Picks, Matchup Analysis and Injury News for Friday 3/7/25

DraftKings NBA DFS Cheat Sheet: Picks, Matchup Analysis and Injury News for Friday 3/7/25

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By: Garion Thorne

There are 16 teams participating in tonight’s eight-game NBA featured slate on DraftKings, yet not all squads are like the others. You’ll need to focus on the Jazz, Raptors, Thunder and Mavericks this evening, as all four teams are going to be almost unrecognizable due to tanking and injury.

On top of that, there’s about a million players with questionable tags. Fun!

Let’s sort through the mess and break down everything you’ll need to know on Friday to play some DFS.

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Key Injury News

QUESTIONABLE: Nikola Jokic, Tyler Herro, Rudy Gobert, Chet Holmgren, Bradley Beal, Deni Avdija, Santi Aldama, Dante Exum, Keyonte George, Jerami Grant, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Andrew Wiggins, Aaron Gordon

OUT: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, Malik Monk, Mark Williams, Jaren Jackson Jr., PJ Washington, RJ Barrett, Gradey Dick, Jonathon Mogbo, Jakob Poeltl, Kel’el Ware, Robert Williams III, Lugentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Ben Simmons

Click here for the slate’s full and updated injury report


Matchup Analysis

Best Defensive Rating (Last 10 Games)

  1. Cleveland Cavaliers at CHA (107.6)
  2. Toronto Raptors vs. UTA (110.9)
  3. Minnesota Timberwolves at MIA (111.4)

Worst Defensive Rating (Last 10 Games)

  1. Phoenix Suns at DEN (119.8)
  2. Memphis Grizzlies at DAL (118.9)
  3. Utah Jazz at TOR (118.2)

Fastest Pace (Last 10 Games)

  1. Memphis Grizzlies at DAL (103.2)
  2. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. POR (102.2)
  3. Utah Jazz at TOR (102.0)

Slowest Pace (Last 10 Games)

  1. Miami Heat vs. MIN (95.4)
  2. Los Angeles Clippers vs. NYK (97.6)
  3. Toronto Raptors vs. UTA (98.7)

Highest Game Total

  1. Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks (239.5)
  2. Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets (238.5)
  3. Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets (235.5)

Top DFS Pick

C Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks at Los Angeles Clippers, $9,900

With the aforementioned Jalen Brunson (ankle) unlikely to suit up on Friday after seemingly sustaining an injury in last night’s loss to the Lakers, the Knicks will need a huge performance from Towns if they have any hope of leaving Los Angeles with a win. This season, Towns has seen his usage rate balloon from 24.3% when sharing the floor with Brunson to 33.2% with him off it. As you can imagine, that isn’t empty volume, either. Towns averages a gargantuan 1.63 FPTS per minute in such scenarios. All of New York’s starters did play a lot of minutes on Thursday, so there’s a chance the injury report gets a little funky on the second night of a back-to-back. However, if Towns is available, he’s one of this slate’s top options. Also keep an eye on Miles McBride ($4,200), who should start in Brunson’s place. McBride only has one start in 2024-25, but he managed 49.5 FPTS in that opportunity.


Top Value Pick

C Orlando Robinson, Toronto Raptors vs. Utah Jazz, $3,500

The Raptors are tanking. It’s that simple. In its last game, Toronto was soundly beating the Magic early in the fourth quarter when the team pulled their starters and essentially asked Raptors 905 to close things out. Then Ja’Kobe Walter ($3,700) hit a game-winning three-pointer with just 0.5 seconds left — denying Toronto’s brass the much-coveted loss. Now, Jakob Poeltl (rest) and RJ Barrett (rest) have both been ruled out on the front-end of the Raptors’ back-to-back set, which means they’ll join Gradey Dick (knee), Ochai Agbaji (ankle) and Jonathan Mogbo (nose) on the sideline. I’d also anticipate Toronto to cap the minutes of both Scottie Barnes ($7,900) and Immanuel Quickley ($6,600). So who does that leave? Walter remains viable, especially in a matchup with the Jazz, as Utah has surrendered the most FPTS per contest to opposing shooting guards in 2024-25. However, my No. 1 bargain is Robinson. With no Poeltl, Mogbo or Ulrich Chomche (knee), Robinson is the only true center Toronto has at the moment. I expect he’ll basically be asked to play until he’s exhausted or fouls out. At just $500 above the minimum, that’s a role I can not pass up.

Garion is a Toronto-based writer who has been playing fantasy sports since elementary school. With a particular affinity for advanced statistics and sabermetrics, he’s been covering DFS Baseball, Football and Basketball for DraftKings dating back to 2018. Prior to that, Garion’s work could be found at FNTSY, SportsGrid, HoopsHype, The New York Daily News and Sportsnet.ca. Still, he is a Dolphins fan, so his decision-making can be questioned from time-to-time.
Disclaimer

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.