I’ve got my eye on two fun-but-unranked Mountain West matchups that might have serious conference championship ripples under Friday Night Lights. Let’s jump a couple time-zones to get to some 10:00pm tip-off games that might give us some serious late-night action from four extremely spirited teams playing great basketball out west right now: UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State, and Boise State. I’ve got predictions, previews, picks, and best bets for both these college basketball games.
It’s still Senior Week in the NCAA, so home teams will of course have the advantage of an extra-motivated crowd. But we’ve seen some massive, conference-shuffling upsets from road underdogs. Not even Senior Night teams are safe.
Friday Fun in the Mountain West: picks, predictions, best bets
UNLV at New Mexico (10:00pm ET)
The stats
The Lobos are already favored by 11.5 points in this game on DraftKings Sportsbook, so there’ll be no Senior Night discount here at The Pit against the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels. Built into this spread is not only the plus-matchup leaning UNM’s way as well as the home-court ballyhoo, but also the added context that the Lobos are gunning hard for a spot
The first time these two teams met in Las Vegas, the Lobos won 71-67. The Rebs weren’t even playing their best basketball then. One might argue that’s how,
We bet on a home team’s fast-break/transition play being inspired on Senior Night when we backed Alabama to cover 3.5 against the visiting Gators, and lost in convincing fashion. I don’t think that’ll happen here, especially given how marginal the advantages were, statistically and on-paper, marginal at best in Alabama’s favor against Florida. The disparity between the Lobos and the Rebels is much larger—the Rebels are 59th in adjusted defensive KenPom rating, and the Lobos are 23rd in defensive KenPom rating, as well as fourth in the country in adjusted tempo. As for their offensive KenPom ratings, the Lobos rank 75th; the Rebs clock in at 142nd.
The situation
We’re not backing the Lobos to cover the spread solely based on KenPom disparity. We’re also doing it because Donovan Dent’s ascent as a first-team All Mountain West guard has been something of a poetic wonder to watch, and he logged one of his finest efforts against UNLV in that 75-73 win: 34 points and two assists. His scoring hasn’t slowed down at all, and with a FG% of 49%, he’s a fantastic bet to lead New Mexico’s charge against UNLV.
The Rebels are, quite frankly, due for a stinker. They’re fresh off a home upset against San Diego State, but one might look at the number of possessions of that game (read: they were low) and think that sort of game favors a home upset. I think New Mexico’s offense is going to be all over the ball, and if UNLV is whatsoever caught thinking they’ll be able to control the tempo on the road against the Lobos like they did at home against the Aztecs—think again.
UNLV vs. New Mexico prediction and pick
UNLV’s Dedan Thomas’s return to the lineup is still up in the air, but, seeing as he’s their best player, it’d make me more confident in their ability to slow down New Mexico. Right now, I just don’t see a path for them to do so effectively, and think this Lobos team has reason to want to hang a number with Selection Sunday just around the corner. We’ll back them to take care of business handily on a Friday night.
Best bet: New Mexico -11.5 (-105)
Colorado State at Boise State (10:00pm ET)
Market evaluation
From a gambling standpoint, this game is absolutely fascinating. Check out how these teams have been doing relative to the books recently:
| TEAM | Recent SU record | Recent ATS record | Recent total insights |
| Colorado State | 6-0 | 6-0 | While the total has gone over in 68.7% of CSU’s last 16 games, the total has gone under in 70% of their last 20 road games. |
| Boise State | 5-0 | 8-2 | While the total has gone under in eight of Boise State’s last ten games, the total has gone over in six of their last eight games played against CSU. |
So, like, point being: pretty even performances relative to how they’ve performed against the market’s expectations. Two red-hot SU and ATS teams, with so many indications balancing out any solid read on a total—and the spread is 5.5 points leaning the Broncos’ way.
I think what might be the key stat for me is that, despite CSU lighting up the scoreboard in 11 of their last 16 games with plenty of Nate Clifford’s creativity at the basket and Jalen Lake triples, they still average just about 12 fewer points on the road than at home (80.4 at home versus 68.9 on the road).
The stakes
That’s just the story of the stats. We haven’t even gotten into the stakes: tonight’s clash at ExtraMile Arena could reshape the postseason path for both Boise State and Colorado State. For the Broncos, the mission is straightforward—win and secure the Mountain West’s two-seed. A result that would likely cement their fourth straight NCAA At-Large bid. A loss, however, could send them tumbling to the five-seed, making their road to March Madness far more treacherous.
The stakes are just as high for CSU. The Rams, sitting 26th in NET and 34th in KenPom, are clinging to the edge of the at-large conversation and need a marquee win to boost their résumé.
CSU vs. Boise State pick and prediction
When they first met, the Broncos lost 72-75 in Fort Collins. It was, infamously, a loss this season that drove Boise State coach Leon Rice to use the term “rock bottom” when asked about the state of his team in the aftermath. You wouldn’t think a three-point loss would do that, but the performance on the court from the Broncos that game was one of the sloppier I’ve watched in recent memory.
I don’t think Tyson Degenhart let’s his team forget the importance of this game tonight. As ever, he’ll be the difference-maker for the Broncos. Give me the Blues to cover the spread at home tonight in the most important game played at ExtraMile since Boise State cut down the nets (for the Mountain West title, of course) against Nevada in 2022.
Best bet: Boise State -5.5 (-115)
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