Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently has ten different projection sets accounting for the litany of injured players on tonight’s NBA slate. Amidst one of the most injured teams, the Thunder, there’s a 50% chance for Chet Holmgren to play tonight at home versus Portland. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein and Lu Dort are among the Thunder players already ruled out, so the rotation would be fairly thin if Holmgren is also sidelined.
Holmgren looks to be one of the most popular plays tonight in DraftKings DFS tournaments with almost 50% of the field expected to roster him, according to industry ownership projections. Despite Holmgren’s relatively modest 15.0 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game this year, there’s an expectation that he gains a lot of usage and fantasy production in addition to his usual 1.3 DraftKings Points Per Minute.
If Holmgren plays today, Unabated NBA projects him for 18.5 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.7 assists. Unfortunately, DraftKings Sportsbook currently has no available prop lines for Holmgren to extract some positive Expected Value bets. However, there would be a huge 18.4% EV on Aaron Wiggins’ under 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists and even higher 20.6% EV on Isaiah Joe’s under 23.5 PRAS bets if Holmgren does play.
If Holmgren sits, it would be wheels up for the remaining Thunder with only nine players available. Here’s how Unabated NBA would project some of the key Thunder players if Holmgren is out:
- Aaron Wiggins projects for 22.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists (20.0 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists if Holmgren is in)
- Isaiah Joe projects for 16.8 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists (15.2 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists if Holmgren is in)
- Alex Caruso projects for 10.8 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.9 assists (9.1 points, 3.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists if Holmgren is in)
- Jaylin Williams projects for 12.0 points, 8.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists (10.2 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists if Holmgren is in)
There are major impacts on the prop bet markets and, especially, the DraftKings DFS slate tonight if Holmgren plays or sits. With the lines where they are, with a lot of EV on the unders if Chet Holmgren plays, it does seem like there’s a higher likelihood that he sits out. That said, Holmgren could play today and dominate the ball if he were to go. With teams like Dallas, Toronto and OKC potentially fielding skeleton squads tonight, there will be a lot to watch out for tonight as Blazers-Thunder tips off at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
