I might be biased as an Angeleno who now lives in New York, but sports are just better when the teams from Los Angeles and New York are both good. Last year’s World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees was the highest-viewed Fall Classic since 2019.
Thankfully for basketball fans, both the Lakers and Knicks are really good. Los Angeles has won 19 of its last 23 games and has the league’s best defense since January 15, while New York is holding steady in the East’s third seed with a 40-21 record. Both are inner-circle contenders; the Lakers (+1400) have the league’s fourth-best odds to win the NBA title and the Knicks (+1700) are joint-sixth.
Tonight, the two teams will face off in a nationally-televised battle, which will tip off at Crypto.com Arena at 7 p.m. ET.
Los Angeles is a 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-162 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 230.5. Meanwhile, New York is +136 on the Moneyline.
Jaxson Hayes O7.5 Points (-120)
Almost nobody has benefited as much from Luka Dončić’s arrival as much as Hayes, who stepped in temporarily to the starting center role with Anthony Davis injured and then became a full-time starter once the Lakers opted to rescind their deal for Charlotte Hornets center Mark Williams, trusting Hayes and Dalton Knecht more than the injury-prone 23-year-old. Williams has been solid for Charlotte, but so has Hayes for Los Angeles; since Dončić joined the team, he’s averaging 8.5 points and 5.2 rebounds per game while shooting 80.4% from the field. He had his finest game as a Laker on Tuesday night against the New Orleans Pelicans, scoring 19 points and adding 10 rebounds.
New York has also been horrible defensively since the start of February, posting the league’s fifth-worst defensive rating across that span. It’s been a little bit better after the All-Star break, but the average champion in the past 25 years has had the NBA’s fifth-best defense, and the Knicks won’t stand a chance against the Boston Celtics or Cleveland Cavaliers unless they can improve on that side of the ball. New York’s problems start in the middle; while wings Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, and Mikal Bridges have been solid, opponents have shot 3.8 percentage points better than usual within six feet of the basket when guarded by Karl-Anthony Towns this season, by far the worst among 21 starting centers who have played at least 45 games this season.
Luka Dončić Most Points + Rebounds + Assists (+105)
Even in a star-studded matchup like this one, there’s no reason to overthink it; the best and most well-rounded player on the court is Luka Dončić, and the best and most well-rounded player usually has the most combined P/R/A. Even if his shot isn’t falling, he still finds a way to have a huge impact; in his revenge game against the Dallas Mavericks, Dončić underperformed from an efficiency perspective but still put up 19 points, 15 rebounds, and 12 assists, significantly more P/R/A/S/B than his season averages. Now that his shot has started to fall, he’s averaged 48.5 P/R/A per game over his last two games, which would be the third-highest average in the league this season.
I have my concerns about all of the other stars on both teams. James’ playmaking burden has dropped precipitously since Dončić joined the team; since the All-Star break, he and Dončić have basically been co-initiators of the offense instead of James handling the bulk of the responsibility, and he’s only averaging 5.9 assists per game across that span. As for the Knicks’ trio, Josh Hart doesn’t score enough, Jalen Brunson doesn’t do enough besides scoring, and Towns is maddeningly inconsistent, and Los Angeles’ defense is simply too good. For his career, Dončić is averaging 30.4 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 8.6 assists per game against New York.
OG Anunoby O1.5 Steals (+130)
In their recent hot stretch, there has been one major problem with the Lakers — they’ve been a turnover machine. Since Dončić made his debut on February 10, Los Angeles has conceded 9.7 steals per game, the fifth-most in basketball. This season, James is averaging 4.0 turnovers per game — the third-highest total of his illustrious career — including 5.0 per contest since Dončić joined the roster despite lower usage. In the one game that Dončić sat out, James had the third 10-plus-turnover game of his career. For his part, Dončić hasn’t been much better, averaging 3.9 giveaways per game as a Laker.
The Knicks’ bevy of big, switchable wings means that they’re capable of producing timely steals. New York has four different players averaging at least a steal per game, plus three players averaging 0.9. Of the three starting wings, the best is probably Anunoby, who is tied for the team lead in steals and tends to guard the opposing team’s best player. He’ll see plenty of matchups against both Dončić and James and should have no trouble forcing them into mistakes.
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