Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as Questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Nikola Jokic to have a 50% chance to play tonight at home versus Sacramento. With the Kings also missing multiple key players as Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk sit this one out, Jokic’s status is very much in question with Denver only a 5.5-point favorite.
Jokic’s status is crucial to know to have a read on DFS and betting markets for Denver. With a 29.2% usage rate, 19.4% rebound rate and 45.1% assist rate, Jokic averages 1.72 DraftKings Points Per Minute. When you account for the matchup and implied total, he’d project for 1.89 DraftKings Points Per Minute in today’s game. Unabated NBA would pencil Jokic in for 28.6 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.5 assists if he’s available. Industry sources would project Jokic for about 20% ownership in tonight’s flagship DraftKings tournaments.
The potential of a Jokic absence would have major ramifications on tonight’s DraftKings DFS tournaments as well as the prop bet markets. As one of the NBA’s most productive players statistically, Jokic playing or sitting out would have a massive impact on the production of his team and the slate of games itself. Here’s how Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections would view some of the key remaining Nuggets if Jokic sits:
- Jamal Murray projects for 25.7 points, 3.1 rebounds and 7.6 assists (21.9 points, 3 rebounds and 5.5 assists if Jokic plays)
- Michael Porter Jr. projects for 22.6 points, 4.3 rebounds and 6.2 assists (18.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.7 assists if Jokic plays)
- Aaron Gordon projects for 15.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.3 assists (13.9 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists if Jokic plays)
If Jokic is out, Unabated’s bet simulation tools would also find an incredibly high 46.8% Expected Value on Michael Porter Jr.’s over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists bet on DraftKings Sportsbook, 18.3% Expected Value on Jamal Murray’s over 32.5 PRAs line, and 3.1% Expected Value on Aaron Gordon’s over 23.5 PRAs prop bet. With major opportunity on the line in prop bets and DraftKings DFS tournaments, Jokic’s availability in this game will be one of the most important items to watch for tonight in the NBA. The game tips off at 9 PM Eastern, plan accordingly!
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
