Eight games will be played across the NBA on Wednesday, March 5th. This comes the day after LeBron James became the first player in NBA history to record 50,000 points last night and with the playoff race heating up on the season’s home stretch.
Four games will start the night each tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET. The Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat will headline this slate of matchups. Then, at 8:00 p.m. ET, the Dallas Mavericks will take on the Milwaukee Bucks as they navigate the free fall of their season with Kyrie Irving’s torn ACL being the latest bad news.
Starting at 9:00 p.m. ET, the Denver Nuggets will host the Sacramento Kings. Then, the Oklahoma City Thunder will take on the Memphis Grizzlies at 9:30 p.m. ET in an intriguing Western Conference matchup. The final matchup of the night is set to begin at 10:30 p.m. ET between the Los Angeles Clippers and Detroit Pistons.
With plenty of NBA action ahead, here are my favorite prop bets for Wednesday’s slate.
Deni Avdija Over 3.5 Assists (-160)
The Portland Trail Blazers have been one of the better stories around the NBA of late. The youthful roster has turned a corner and has won 15 of their past 21 games. Deni Avdija has been a huge part of this spark and has seen his averages grow to 14.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game on the season.
One area where he has been especially impressive has been Avdija’s ability to pull in rebounds and lead the charge in transition. The 6-foot-9 forward does an impressive job putting the ball on the floor and forcing opponents to make decisions on the fast break. Across the past 20 games, he is averaging 4.2 assists per game and has recorded over 3.5 assists in 13 games of these games. Portland will take on the Boston Celtics who remain the Eastern Conference title favorites.
On the season overall, Avdija has recorded over 3.5 assists in 30 of the 58 games. He has reached this number in two of the three games against the Celtics in his career and 13 of the 20 games without Deandre Ayton this season who will continue to miss tonight. Robert Williams III is also set to remain out which should open the door for more minutes for the 24-year-old. Look for Avdija to especially attack in transition and continue showcasing his playmaking ability by recording over 3.5 assists again tonight.
Jerami Grant Under 13.5 Points (-130)
Jerami Grant is expected to make his return to the floor tonight after missing the past three games with right knee tendinitis. Across the 45 games he has played this season, Grant is averaging 14.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists. He has been held under 13.5 points in 19 games this season. This scoring regression has been evident in recent games with the youthful roster developing around him and Grant falling pack in the offensive pecking order.
Grant dropped 15 points against the struggling Wizards the last time he was on the floor, but was held to under 13.5 points in three of the five games prior. He is shooting just 37.3% from the field this season and is set to face a Boston Celtics team that ranks first in opponents’ points allowed, third in opponents’ field goal percentage, and second in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Even more concerning, Boston is perfectly built to limit the impact of wings like Grant. They are holding opposing small forwards to the fifth-fewest points on the season and third-fewest over the past 10 games. The Celtics have a lengthy injury report with most of their notable players listed as questionable so keep an eye on this. But Grant has not displayed reliable efficiency from the field at any point this season and many other members of the Trail Blazers have taken strides forward in their offensive production. Expect his role to remain a bit limited in his first game back from injury and for Grant to be held to under 13.5 points against the defending champions tonight.
Max Christie Over 18.5 Points & Assists (-120)
Few fan bases have ever had as rough of a stretch as the Dallas Mavericks’ faithful have over the past month. The dust of the Luka Doncic trade seems to have finally settled only for Kyrie Irving to suffer a misstep when attacking the basket resulting in a torn ACL to further cast doubts about the outlook of the franchise. While there will surely be bigger-picture discussions about the outlook of the team, the grind of the regular season continues on.
The remaining members of this Mavericks team will suit up tonight and take on the Milwaukee Bucks. With a lengthy injury list already established, someone has to produce for this team and look for Max Christie to make the most of his expanded opportunity. The Michigan State product showed a nice spark immediately following the trade but has settled down a bit of late. Across his opening 12 games with the franchise, Christie is averaging 12.9 points, 3.5 assists, and 4.2 rebounds.
With Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Caleb Martin, Dante Exum, P.J. Washington, Jaden Hardy, Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively III all remaining out, count on Christie to have the green light on the offensive end. He has recorded over 18.5 combined points and assists four times with the Mavericks already and he will have full freedom to chase this same number. There will be a far larger offensive workload than Christie is accustomed to (and probably should have) and don’t expect it to be the most efficient route of reaching. But take advantage of the volume of opportunities the 22-year-old has and count on him to record over 18.5 combined points and assists tonight.
Ausar Thompson Over 3.5 Assists (+120)
The Detroit Pistons have joined the conversation for youthful rosters that have found their stride. They have climbed to sixth place in the Eastern Conference with their 35-27 record and are 10-1 in their last 11. Ausar Thompson has been a key part of this turnaround and is playing some of his best basketball of late. On the season, the second-year wing is averaging 9.8 points, 2.4 assists, and 5.0 rebounds in his 21.6 minutes per game. But across the past 14 games, his numbers have grown to 13.1 points, 3.9 assists, and 5.4 rebounds across 24.9 minutes per game.
He does not possess the level of playmaking instincts of his brother or some of the more advanced passers in the NBA. But he has been asked to take on this role more especially following the season-ending injury to Jaden Ivey. Thompson has recorded over 3.5 assists in seven of the past 12 games.
Detroit will take on the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. They have leaned on a more defensive-minded approach his season and rank fourth in opponents’ points allowed and sixth in assists conceded this year. However, they have shown some signs of weakness of late and have dropped four of their past six matchups entering this game. Look for Detroit to continue building off the impressive brand of basketball they have played of late and for Thompson to continue showing growth. Tobias Harris will also be out for tonight’s matchup which should lead to some additional minutes for Thompson. Look for him to continue producing as he has in this strong stretch of play and capitalize on the +120 odds tonight.
