The Florida swing continues this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge (par 72, 7,466 yards, Bermuda greens) in Orlando. This has been the home of the Arnold Palmer Invitational since 1979 and this tournament is one of the PGA TOUR’s eight Signature Events this season. As a Signature Event, this will be a limited field of 72 golfers competing for a purse of $20 million. Following the first two rounds, there will be a cut with the top 50 and ties and any player within 10 shots of the lead advancing.
Below, I have featured some head-to-head tournament matchup bets to consider for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Tony Finau over Sepp Straka (-115)
While Straka has had a better season than Finau, with the former carding four top-15 finishes in seven starts, including a win at the American Express, Finau’s game is ascending right now and his recent form is better than Straka’s.
After opening the season with two straight missed cuts, Finau has been great, finishing T-13 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and T-5 at the Genesis Invitational, both of which are Signature Events that featured the PGA TOUR’s best players. In that latter start, Finau began the week with a 4-over 76, but then shot under par in his next three rounds and if he could have avoided that first round blowup, Finau would have been right in the mix for a win at the Genesis Invitational. The veteran will now look to carry this momentum over to Bay Hill, where he has finished inside the top-30 in two of his last three starts at the difficult track.
Straka on the other hand is coming off a T-11 at the Cognizant Classic, but in his previous start, Straka missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational. Not only did he miss the cut at the South Course of Torrey Pines that week, Straka finished in a tie for the second-worst score of the Signature Event at +10. As for his resume at Bay Hill, Straka has really struggled at the challenging venue, making only one cut in five starts. That one made cut was last year when he finished in a tie for last place among the players who made the cut. Straka is losing 1.98 strokes per round at Bay Hill, which is the second-worst average of all the players competing this week. Meanwhile, Finau is gaining 0.43 strokes per round at the par 72.
Straka outperforming Finau at Bay Hill would be a surprise and Finau is an easy choice for this matchup.
Ben Griffin over Akshay Bhatia (-110)
While Bhatia is in great form with back-to-back T-6 finishes, Griffin has been even better with two straight T-4 finishes. Griffin has gained strokes across the board in each of these last two starts and he ranks first in total strokes gained when we compare this field’s last eight rounds, while Bhatia ranks ninth. Also, Griffin has been one of the best par five players this season, ranking fourth on the PGA TOUR in par five performance. Conversely, Bhatia ranks 74th in the category, which is not an encouraging sign for Bay Hill, where being efficient on the four par fives is a must. Of the past four winners at Bay Hill, three have finished the event top three in par five efficiency.
Last, but not least, Griffin has the upper hand on course history at Bay Hill over Bhatia. Griffin finished T-14 in his lone start at Bay Hill two years ago, while this will be Bhatia’s debut at the tricky Florida venue.
Griffin carries better outright odds to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational than Bhatia on DraftKings Sportsbook and attacking Griffin at this -110 price quickly is a smart move, as these odds are likely to move in favor of Griffin.
