The PGA TOUR is set for another star-studded week in the Sunshine State as the best pros in the game return to action for the fourth Signature Event of the season–the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I highlighted the history and the course of this prestigious event earlier this week, and in this post, I’ll share my top 3-ball picks as my golf best bets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
If you’re not familiar with the 3-ball matchups, let’s quickly review the ground rules. In the matchup section of the tournament page, there are six Tournament Trios that match up three players head-to-head for the duration of the tournament. I find 3-balls to be a perfect balance of risk and reward. They are a great way to get plus odds but still have a management matchup to attack.
Last week at the Cognizant Classic, I hit on two of my three picks, getting wins from Daniel Berger and Max Greyserman after a great weekend. Since 3-balls are always more than +150, hitting two of three is a very successful week. Let’s keep it rolling this week!
Looking at this week’s 3-balls, here are my three golf best bets:
Ludvig Aberg (+150)
The only thing that seems to be able to derail the Aberg express this season is a nasty illness that caused him to fade at Torrey Pines and withdraw from the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He got his revenge, though, at The Genesis Invitational when he beat an elite field to claim the win at that Signature Event.
Aside from his WD at Pebble Beach, Aberg finished T-5 at The Sentry in the other Signature Event this season. His game is perfect for difficult courses like this one, and his accuracy and power off the tee make this course a great fit for a well-rounded game like his. In his win at Torrey, Aberg ranked in the top five in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach and he also placed second in driving distance.
He’s matched up against Justin Thomas (+175) and Tommy Fleetwood (+190), who both have more extensive course history. Aberg has finished in the top 25 in both his appearances but has only played here twice. Thomas has played it three times with two top-25 finishes the last two years. Fleetwood has played it eight times with four top-25 finishes and three top-10 finishes. However, as much as I value course history, Aberg’s form has been so much stronger than Fleetwood’s that he’s still my pick in this tournament trio.
Jason Day (+175)
This is a fun trio with Day taking on slight favorite Wyndham Clark (+165) and longer shot J.J. Spaun (+185).
Clark has been boom-or-bust this season with two top-20 finishes, a missed cut and an ugly T-73 in his title defense at Pebble Beach. He will be playing his first event in Florida this year and returning to Bay Hill, where he finished runner-up last year to Scottie Scheffler. You can see why he’s the favorite, but his inconsistency leaves the door open for Day.
Before we get to Day, though, let’s look quickly at Spaun. He’s been in good form with six made cuts and three top-25 finishes in seven events this season. He’s the only one of this trio that played last week, finishing T-2 behind breakthrough winner Joe Highsmith. As good as Spaun has been, the course fit isn’t great for him. He missed the cut at this event last year and finished T-49 or worse in each of his previous three trips. He’s in better form this year, for sure, but I still don’t trust him as much as I do J-Day.
Day has exactly the kind of game that Bay Hill requires. He typically does well on difficult courses like this one and has the length and temperment to aggressively attack par-5s and grind out pars on the other holes.
He has been consistent so far this season, going 5-for-5 making the cut with two top-15 finishes, highlighted by a T-3 at The American Express. The fact that he’s in good form is nice, but the real reason I’m backing Day this week is his outstanding course history. He has played this event 13 times in his career with six top-25 finishes, including a win in 2016. He’s been in the top 36 in each of his last three trips to this event, including a T-10 just two years ago.
He’s the steadiest of the three plays and has the best track record at Bay Hill, where steady usually pays off.
Corey Conners (+190)
I usually try to go with one long shot each week, and this week I love that Conners is almost +200. He’s going up against two other international players–Sungjae Im (+160) and Shane Lowry (+170).
Conners hasn’t been able to get on track yet this year, but Bay Hill is a course that fits his skillset as a second-shot specialist. He started 2025 with a T-5 at The Sentry but stumbled at the Sony Open, AT&T Pebble Beach and WM Phoenix Open. However, he showed some positive signs at The Genesis Invitational, especially in his five-under closing round that vaulted him up to T-24. His putter seemed to come alive in that event, which gives him momentum to build off this week.
Like Day, Conners is a grinder whose game fits difficult tracks like this. He has played the event in six straight seasons, finishing in the top 25 in each of the last four years. In 2021, he finished third and last year came in T-18.
Im also has strong history on this course, but his recent form has been very rough. He missed the cut at The Genesis and last week at PGA National, where he also had a great history before last week’s letdown. Given his current form, I’m comfortable picking against him this week.
Lowry is the dangerous one for Conners here, on paper at least. The Irishman finished runner-up at the AT&T Pebble Beach at the end of January, T-39 at the Genesis and then a strong T-11 last week at the Cognizant. Lowry finished third at this event last year, but prior to that, he had finished T-67 and missed the cut four times at Bay Hill.
If Lowry and Conners were at the same price, it would be a tough call, but with Conners’ odds boosted up to +190, I’m taking him to bounce back and build momentum at Bay hill.
