The late stages of the college basketball season are upon us before conference tournaments take center stage in preparation for the Big Dance. There are only 11 days until Selection Sunday with both Ole Miss and Tennessee expected to have a ticket in.
The Volunteers have done a nice job putting themselves in the driver’s seat for a No. 1 or 2 seed with their 24-5 overall record. This matchup will be more meaningful for Ole Miss, which is 20-9 on the season but just 9-7 in conference play. It currently looks primed for a seed in the 7-10 range, although its outlook could change greatly with matchups against fourth-ranked Tennessee tonight and fifth-ranked Florida on Saturday to close out the regular season.
Tennessee will be playing this matchup on the road but enters as 2.5-point favorites and -142 on the Moneyline. Ole Miss holds +120 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook with the over/under for the game set at 139.5.
Tennessee Analysis
Tennessee has done an impressive job this season continuing to legitimize itself as NCAA Tournament title contenders. The Vols are 24-5 overall on the season, 11-5 in SEC play, 10-5 against Quad 1 opponents and a perfect 14-0 when facing Quad 2, 3 or 4 teams. The Volunteers are coming off their biggest win of the season after taking down the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday night on a buzzer-beater three-pointer from Jahmai Mashack as time expired.
They are led in scoring by Chaz Lanier, who has announced his presence on the national stage after spending the previous four seasons at North Florida. He is averaging 17.8 points and 3.4 rebounds while shooting 40.7% on 8.4 three-point attempts per game. Zakai Zeigler continues to hold the primary playmaking responsibility and is leading the conference with 7.2 assists per game. Zeigler also adds 13.7 points and joins Jordan Gainey (10.8 PGG) and Igor Milicic Jr. (10.7 PPG) as the other three scorers averaging double figures.
The Volunteers are one of the slowest-paced teams in the country, ranking 345th in adjusted tempo. They are limiting opponents to just 61.3 points per game, which is the seventh-best rate in the league. Tennessee also ranks ninth in defensive efficiency and is holding opponents to the worst field-goal percentage in the country (37.4%) and the second-worst three-point rate (27.9%).
Tennessee approaches the game with a defense-first mindset. It has held opponents below 60 points in 13 games this season, including giving up as few as 35 points in a game. It struggles for stretches to generate offense and its overall approach is a bit too dependent on production from beyond the three-point arc, so look toward the defense for its path to victory tonight.
Ole Miss Analysis
Ole Miss started the season ranked 24th in the AP Poll and climbed as high as 16 this season. However, its struggles in conference play have cast some doubt regarding how it truly stacks up against the top teams in college basketball. The Rebels are 20-9 overall this season but just 9-7 in SEC conference play and 5-9 against Quad 1 opponents.
Sean Pedulla headlines the team’s production, averaging 15.2 points, 3.8 assists and 3.6 rebounds while shooting 40.4% from beyond the three-point arc. Five other players average in double figures with there being a well-balanced approach to the offense.
As a team, Ole Miss ranks 81st in the country in scoring at 77.9 points per game. It allows 71.0 points per game, which ranks 151st in the country and the team is especially vulnerable at rebounding the basketball. The Rebels rank 304th in the country in rebounding and this will be an area to monitor in this matchup and moving forward.
The Pick: Under 139.5 Points (-110)
This has the makings of a major letdown spot for Tennessee on the heels of its best win of the season in buzzer-beating fashion. Ole Miss will have the home crowd behind it and more on the line from a seeding perspective. However, Tennessee has a more defined style of play that will show up tonight.
While my lean is toward Ole Miss producing the upset, expect Tennessee’s defense to continue asserting itself. The under has hit in 18 of Tennessee’s 29 games this season and Ole Miss does not possess the caliber of offense to break things open in this game. The 139.5-point line is on the lower side of where their over/under has been set this year but the Vols’ ability to limit opponents has been clear. They held Alabama’s high-powered offense, which averages an NCAA-leading 91.0 points per game, to just 76 points on Saturday.
This showing still does not present their best defensive effort of the season, so expect Ole Miss to struggle to score the basketball tonight. Look for this matchup to be a bit of a rock fight as scoring is hard to come by across the board. Don’t be surprised if this is the type of game where scoring feels impossible in the opening few minutes and the path to the game remaining under the 139.5 total becomes clear. Count on Rick Barnes’ squad to assert themselves and for the winning team to have a hard time cracking 70 in tonight’s game.
