Who’s the best player without a single PGA TOUR victory? By the Official World Golf Ranking, it’s World No. 10 Tommy Fleetwood. The Englishman has come agonizingly close several times, losing in a playoff to Nick Taylor at the 2023 RBC Canadian Open and coming up one stroke shy of winning the 2018 U.S. Open.
It’s not to say that he’s likely to break that streak this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Golf Course in Orlando, Fla., although he certainly could. He currently has the ninth-shortest odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to lift the trophy on Sunday afternoon in the fourth of the PGA TOUR’s eight signature events.
There are hundreds of prop bets available for this weekend. Here’s my favorite centered around Fleetwood.
Best Tommy Fleetwood Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Tommy Fleetwood Round Score – Round 1 Under 71.5 (+100)
Fleetwood’s first-round scoring average this season is 73, with a one-under 71 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a three-over 75 on at The Genesis Invitational as his two Thursday offerings. He ranks just 181st on the PGA TOUR in the category, mostly hindered by a balky putter that has produced 32 putts per round on Thursdays so far this season. He’s made up for it on Friday through Sunday, though; he has scoring averages of less than 70 and putting averages of 30 or less in each of the final two rounds.
Although the statistics aren’t great, the sample size is tiny — two rounds. During the 2024 season, in which he played 19 tournaments, his first-round scoring average was a very solid 70.05, the 76th-best on the PGA TOUR, and in 2023, that figure was 69.95 across 20 rounds. Throughout his career, he’s generally been a better player in later rounds, but he’s not as slow a starter as his 2025 sample would indicate.
What has remained true across a large sample size is his control with his irons, a vital aspect of success at Bay Hill. According to Data Golf, it’s the ninth-hardest course that the TOUR has visited since 2015 on approaches to the green and the 17th-hardest off the tee. This season, Fleetwood is fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green after ranking 34th in that category in 2024 and eighth in 2022-23. In windy Floridian golfing conditions, keeping the ball low and controlling the spin is paramount, and Fleetwood does that better than almost anyone, so his game should be well-suited for the course. He has recorded a 71 or better in three of his eight career opening rounds at the tournament, most recently in 2021, when he tied for 10th.
