March is here, and that means some of the smaller conference tournaments are getting underway this week. Make sure you’re keeping your eyes on the DraftKings Sportsbook betting splits when doing your research on games, available for free on DK Network. Below I’ll breakdown my pick to win the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, also known as Arch Madness.
The MVC has belonged to Drake all season, sitting in the No. 1-seed entering Arch Madness. But Bradley, the preseason favorite, hasn’t been too far behind the Bulldogs. Drake went 17-3 in-conference, while the Braves sit at 15-5. Drake has been the superior team away from home, but Bradley also sits at 11-4 in road/neutral floor games.
Bradley’s path to the Championship Game from the 2-seed feels very realistic. The Braves will be a sizable favorite over the winner of the Murray State vs. Evansville matchup, and then would be in position to face a 3-seed in Northern Iowa that they pounded by 17 points in the regular season finale. If Bradley can win those two games, then it heads to the final.
Maybe the Braves get lucky and Drake loses along the way on the other side of the bracket, then we’re riding a great ticket. But assuming that’s not the case, we’re still in great shape if Bradley wins those two games. The Braves won the most recent head-to-head on Drake’s home floor, so we know they’re live to win the game. They were also 5.5-point road dogs in that game, indicating the Braves would be just a short underdog on a neutral floor in Saint Louis. Come Sunday, we can decide to ride or hedge on that ticket, but there’s enough value here to fire on a good Bradley team to punch its ticket to the dance.
Arch Madness Pick: Bradley (+340) 1-unit
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
