With the major season rapidly approaching — the Masters Tournament starts in just 37 days — PGA TOUR players will turn their attention to the Arnold Palmer Invitational. As the fourth of the PGA TOUR’s eight signature events, most of the world’s best players will descend upon Bay Hill Golf Course in Orlando, Fla. this weekend. It might be a bloodbath; Bay Hill ranked as the 10th-hardest course on the circuit in 2024.
With so many of the world’s finest in action, there is no shortage of options for DFS players to choose from, but given his form in his limited appearances this season, Collin Morikawa ($9,800) is my favorite for his price tag.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $300K Drive the Green [$50K to 1st]
In years past, the tournament has typically been won by a top-level player; for instance, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler ($12,000) has lifted the trophy in two of the past three years and is a +320 favorite to do so again this week. But drafting Scheffler would require committing 24% of your budget, as his salary is $1,200 more expensive than the second-priciest player.
To be fair, Scheffler’s fits the course well, as he ranks 50th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green so far this season. Like several Florida courses, Bay Hill is relatively difficult from tee to green and easier around the greens, so Scheffler’s ball-striking strengths play to his advantage. But Morikawa has been better this season in this critical facet, ranking second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green this season, behind only Rory McIlroy ($10,800), another former winner.
Morikawa has only played in the signature events this season, but he has been extremely good, finishing as the runner-up to Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300) at The Sentry and tying for 17th at both the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational.
To be fair, betting on Morikawa to do well at this weekend’s tournament is grounded more in theory than in practice; in four previous starts at the tournament, he tied for 64th in 2018, tied for ninth in 2020, and missed the cut in each of the past two seasons. But with a game as volatile as golf, past results do not necessarily predict future success, and Morikawa is well-suited to make his rough history at the tournament the last two seasons just that — history.
