Seven games are set to take place across today’s NBA slate. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets will headline the night and be the nationally televised matchup.
To kick things off, the Philadelphia 76ers will host the streaking Portland Trail Blazers while the Golden State Warriors take on the Charlotte Hornets. Both games are tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET. A half-hour later, the Washington Wizards will take on the Miami Heat.
The Thunder vs Rockets game will take place at 8:00 p.m. ET at the same time the Hawks and Grizzlies face off. At 8:30, the Dallas Mavericks will host the Sacramento Kings. The final matchup of the night will be between the Utah Jazz and the streaking Detroit Pistons, with this game starting at 9:00 p.m. ET.
With plenty of NBA action ahead, here are my favorite prop bets for Monday’s slate.
Paul George Over 17.5 Points (-125)
The Paul George Era in Philadelphia has not gotten off to its desired start. While the season looks to already be off the rails, George has been showing some encouraging signs on the floor of late. The nine-time All-Star enters this matchup having scored 15+ points in five straight games for the first time all season. He shot 48.2% from the field over this stretch, which is 5.8% higher than his rate on the season. Portland has played at the fastest pace in the NBA over the past five games so expect him to have some additional opportunities to attack.
On the season overall, George is averaging just 16.5 points per game and has only eclipsed 17.5 points in 15 of the 40 games he has played. Initially brought in to be a part of the All-Star trio on Philadelphia’s roster, the offensive power balance has shifted in Philadelphia. Joel Embiid has been shut down for the season due to his knee injury while Tyrese Maxey is playing through a clearly bothersome hand injury. Maxey has shot a combined 0-for-12 on three-point attempts in his last two games and is averaging just 16.7 points per game over his last five games.
This has left George to lead the offensive charge for Philadelphia. Looking at the opponent, Portland ranks 18th in opponents’ points allowed, 20th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 16th in opponents’ three-point percentage. George has put the podcast microphone to the side for the time being and is putting full focus on salvaging the season. His activity and effort level have been more impressive in recent games and look for him to carry this effort into tonight by recording over 17.5 points. He has been one of the better scorers in the league throughout his career and count on George to make the most of his additional offensive opportunities tonight.
Deni Avdija Over 6.5 Rebounds (-115)
On the other side of the matchup with the Sixers sits the Portland Trail Blazers. Their outlook has greatly changed on the season, with the youthful roster having won 14 of their past 20 games. Deni Avdija has been a huge part of this effort and is averaging 14.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game on the season.
His rebounding numbers have been especially impressive in recent games with Avdija pulling in 12 rebounds last night and 14 rebounds two games prior. Rebounding is a weakness on this Philadelphia team as they rank 19th in opponents’ rebounds per game and 30th in total team rebounds. Embiid being shut down for the season has changed this outlook to an extent, but Andre Drummond has been extremely underwhelming in his on-court opportunities.
Avdija has pulled in over 6.5 rebounds in 21 games this season including in the previous matchup with Philadelphia. Portland has played at the fastest pace in the league over their past five games and the additional opportunities should lead to more rebounding chances. The 24-year-old is playing 28.6 minutes per game on the season and played 42:06 of game time last night against the Cavaliers. Expect him to have plenty of opportunities on the floor tonight and capitalize on this weakness of the Sixers by pulling in at least seven rebounds tonight.
Amen Thompson Over 9.5 Rebounds (+100)
The most notable matchup tonight will be the Western Conference matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets. This will be the second night of a back-to-back for the Thunder and the opening night of a back-to-back for the Rockets, so not ideal circumstances for either team. It should be noted that Thompson is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. Alperen Sengun, Dillons Brooks, Steven Adams, and Tari Eason are each also questionable, so keep an eye on this injury report leading up until tip-off.
Assuming he is on the floor, expect Amen Thompson to make his impact felt in this game. On the season he is averaging 13.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. In a league filled with the best athletes in the world, Thompson still cracks the highest tier of this list. He has a quicker second jump than just about anyone in the league, and has done an impressive job using his physical tools to equate to basketball production.
Thompson has pulled in as many as 16 rebounds in a game this season, and has recorded over 9.5 rebounds in 20 games overall. He is averaging 9.6 rebounds per game over his past 25 games. You are nitpicking when looking for weaknesses on this Thunder team, but rebounding is at the top of the list. Oklahoma City ranks 13th in total team rebounds and is 25th in opponents’ rebounds allowed. Expect his athleticism to be a difference-maker in this matchup and for Thompson to have success creating additional possession on the offensive glass as he makes his way to over 9.5 rebounds for the 21st time this season.
Keyonte George Under 17.5 Points (-120)
The final matchup of the night will take place between the Utah Jazz and Detroit Pistons. Utah holds a record of 15-45 on the season and remains firmly in their rebuild. In contrast, the Pistons have flipped the switch and developed into one of the better stories in the NBA this season. They have climbed to sixth place in the Eastern Conference with their 34-27 record and are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
Over this past 10-game stretch, the Pistons rank fifth in the league in opponents’ points allowed, second in opponents’ field goal percentage, and third in opponents’ rebounds allowed. Expect this improved defensive identity to play a factor in this matchup and for points to be hard to come by for the Jazz. Keyonte George has taken a stride forward in his development this season. The 21-year-old is averaging 16.8 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.7 rebounds per game.
George has (somehow) improved his efficiency this season but is still shooting just 39.7% from the floor. He has been held under 17.5 points in 29 of the 50 games he has played this season. He has a steady green light to create offense throughout, but Detroit has plenty of high-level defenders that will bother George. Expect points to be hard to come by across the board, and for George’s inefficient shooting to be especially problematic. Count on Detroit’s hot streak to continue and for Keyonte George to be held under 17.5 points for the 30th time this season to close down the night.
