Tipping off at 6:00 p.m. ET as part of the nine-game NBA slate, the New York Knicks will face the Miami Heat. Karl-Anthony Towns and company will travel down to South Beach with neither of these teams holding the level of momentum they desire at this stage of the season.
The Knicks still sit in third place in the Eastern Conference with a 39-20 record. They are looking to build off the momentum of their second playoff series victory since 2012-13 that occurred last year. New York decided its internal growth was not enough and made a big swing, trading for Karl-Anthony Towns shortly before the season began. Towns has been impressive so far this season. The five-time All-Star is averaging 24.6 points and a career-high 13.3 rebounds per game.
Miami’s outlook shifted greatly following the Jimmy Butler trade saga. The writing was on the wall for quite some time that the window to win with Butler was closing, but he was officially traded away at the deadline with a new era of Miami basketball beginning. The Heat are coming off back-to-back wins entering this game but had dropped six of their previous seven.
The Knicks enter this matchup as 6.5-point favorites and -270 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Heat hold +220 odds on the moneyline with the game total set at 220.5.
With the stage set, here are my favorite Karl-Anthony Towns prop bets ahead of the Sunday matchup.
Best Karl-Anthony Towns Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Towns’ props are listed at over/under 23.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.5 made three-pointers and 38.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds (-130)
Karl-Anthony Towns is rebounding the ball at a career-best rate, pulling in 13.3 rebounds per game. He has recorded over 11.5 rebounds in 32 of the 53 games he has played. This includes the lone matchup against the Heat this season in which Towns finished with 13 rebounds.
The biggest reason for the drop in the prop line is the return of Mitchell Robinson. There is plenty of statistical evidence, both from this season and years past, to prove Towns does not provide enough defensive resistance as the full-time center. Robinson has finally recovered from his foot issues and made his season debut on Friday. He finished with six points and five rebounds in his 12:20 of game time against the Grizzlies.
While Robinson will surely play a role in shifting expectations for Towns moving forward, don’t expect it to limit his production to this extent. Expect New York to be careful about putting too much on Robinson’s plate too soon and for Towns to continue seeing plenty of time as the primary rebounding option.
In addition, Miami ranks 22nd in opponent rebounds allowed and 20th in total team rebounds. Towns will have a slight size advantage over Bam Adebayo and has gotten the better of him in their career matchups. Take advantage of the prop line dipping more than expected and look for the Knicks’ big man to pull in at least 12 rebounds for the 33rd time this season.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 23.5 Points (-110)
While you can point to concerns with his defense, Karl-Anthony Towns was brought to this Knicks team for his offensive ability. He has raised the ceiling of this team in this category and is shooting a career-best 42.7% from beyond the three-point arc. He is averaging 24.6 points per game on the season and has recorded over 23.5 points in 28 of the 53 games he has played. This includes a 44-point eruption that Towns had in his first matchup with the Heat, which is tied for his second-highest scoring output of the season.
While Miami still points to its defense as its identity as a team, the stats have not backed this up this season. The Heat rank seventh in opponent points per game but 14th in opponent field-goal percentage and 16th in opponent three-point percentage.
If anything, the addition of Mitchell Robinson should free up Towns for more potential offensive production, which is where he is at his best. Towns has recorded over 23.5 points in four of his last six games. Miami will not have an answer for his combination of size and skill on the interior or when he stretches the floor from beyond the three-point arc. For the sake of this article, we will stick to over 23.5 points for the Knicks star but I don’t mind taking a stab at the +290 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for Towns to record 30+ points, which he has done 17 times already this season.
