Reader beware—I’m a convincingly ugly zip-for-two on my last Gators picks. I keep believing in this offense’s ability to travel, maintain consistency, and stay healthy. And they’ve been unable to do any of that, especially in key road conference matchups against Auburn and, most recently, Georgia. Still, they’re ranked third overall in the AP Men’s Top 25. My bets mean nothing! Glorious!
They get twelfth-ranked Texas A&M tonight after the Aggies suffered a home upset loss to Vanderbilt earlier this week. Here’s my play for the game tonight, with some analysis.
As of this writing, the current odds and lines for this game on DraftKings Sportsbook are: Florida -9.5 (-105), with a total of 148.5, and A&M +360 on the Moneyline to upset the Gators in College Station.
Florida Gators vs. Texas A&M preview and pick
As part of a recent slump, Texas A&M is now 21st in KenPom rating. That’s down from 13th as recently as 14 days ago. Buzz Williams’ group remains extremely physical on the boards, and that’ll be their key advantage on both ends of the floor against the Gators. Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps seem to be coming into form for the Aggies in the backcourt, even despite the losses. So it’s not like the scorers can’t score; it’s more, like Florida, a consistency issue.
And yet, here we are again looking at a matchup that clearly favors the Gators, even down to fundamentals; they are a far better free-throw shooting team than the Aggies, and thus can afford to take fouls. And yet nothing’s been going Florida’s way recently, especially in the first halves of big games.
The spread is yawning—double digits, basically, with that nine-and-a-half number—and Florida’s 0-2 ATS in the last two road conference when I’ve picked them to cover. For them to cross that threshold, the Gators would need to bang blow-for-blow with the Aggies on the Glass (tough to do), and find their third-in-the-SEC beyond-the-arc shooting rhythm early.
What feels like the easy analysis here would be that A&M covers the spread but Florida wins. Florida’s been going cold too much—don’t forget about that 26-0 run against the Bulldogs, though—to feel like 10 points in a conference slugfest is a given, even despite the matchup.
But I actually expect a little bit of scoring regression from Taylor IV in this game, if not as much from Phelps. And I still think a healthier Alex Condon for the Gators will be the key on the boards against the Aggies. If Clayton Martin
Best bet: Florida -9.5 (105) for 1u
Here we go again. It’s gotta hit sometime! Seriously, though—the Gators are too good an offense under Todd Golden to string together this many tight conference losses. When they’re bad, they don’t just fail to cover, they often outright lose. When they’re clicking, they’re military-grade on the scoreboard.
What we’re really, at it’s most elementary, betting on here is Florida’s hold in their elite KenPom ranking despite their struggles, juxtaposed with that 13th-to-21st KenPom rank for the Aggies during their rut. And: Alex Condon!
