Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as Questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently has FIFTEEN different sets of projections for key Questionable players on this slate. With ten games, there are a lot of players whose statuses are up in the air. With all these games and Questionable statuses, there’s a lot to dig into in Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections for the multiverse of potential rotations and betting opportunities.
Today, we’ll focus on Raptors star Scottie Barnes, who has a 50% chance tonight to play on the road against the fast-paced and defensively lacking Bulls. Even though Barnes has fallen behind RJ Barrett in the usage pecking order with only a 26.6% usage rate compared to Barrett’s 28.7%, Barnes has been the team’s top stat producer with 1.2 DraftKings Points Per Minute. Given the matchup versus Chicago — who currently give up the fifth-highest defensive efficiency rating with 116.6 points allowed per 100 possessions — Barnes’ status is crucial in a game where Toronto has a 115.3 implied point total.
If Barnes is in, Unabated NBA would project him for 19.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 5.3 assists. While that wouldn’t make him a must-have DFS play in DraftKings tournaments, it would give him some tournament potential at his $8,600 salary. Unabated’s prop bet simulation tools would also find a great 7.6% Expected Value on Barnes’ under 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook. There’s opportunity to profit off of Barnes if he does play on the road at Chicago.
If he doesn’t play, there would be major implications for the remaining Raptors. The aforementioned RJ Barrett and lead guard Immanuel Quickley would instantly become more compelling options for prop bets and DFS. Unabated NBA’s conditional projections would expect the following changes whether Barnes plays or sits:
- RJ Barrett projects for 22.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 5.9 assists (21.2 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.3 assists if Barnes plays)
- Immanuel Quickley projects for 19.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 7 assists (18.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 6.4 assists if Barnes plays)
- Gradey Dick projects for 14.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 1.9 assists (12.1 points, 5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists if Barnes plays)
There would also be a massive 26.4% Expected Value on Gradey Dick’s over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists on DraftKings Sportsbook, according to Unabated’s bet simulations. With Dick picking up additional minutes and scoring opportunity if Barnes misses the game, he’s unquestionably the potential big winner (and one to watch for rising ownership on tonight’s DraftKings tournaments) should the Raptors be without Barnes tonight.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
