For the third time in less than a month and a half, a Battle of LA is on our hands. The LA Clippers hosted the first two at the brand-new Intuit Dome, but now it’ll be the Los Angeles Lakers’ turn to host at Crypto.com Arena. The Lakers will also host the rematch on Sunday night.
The Lakers are flying high, having won four straight games to climb within one and a half games of the Memphis Grizzlies for the second seed in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Clippers snapped a three-game losing streak with a narrow win over the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday and are still half a game ahead of the surging Golden State Warriors for the sixth seed.
Both teams have significant injury reports; LeBron James, Luka Dončić, and Jaxson Hayes are questionable for the Lakers, with Rui Hachimura out. Meanwhile, Norman Powell — who’s missed each of the last four games with a knee injury — is questionable for the Clippers.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Clippers are 4.5-point favorites (-185 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 220.5. Meanwhile, the Lakers are +154 on the Moneyline.
Betting Splits
Bettors are high on the Lakers to pull off the upset, given that they’re 8-2 in their last 10 games and have the league’s second-best defensive rating across that span. The Lakers picked up a signature win last Saturday, demolishing the Denver Nuggets, 123-100, and while his shot still isn’t falling consistently, Dončić has started to find his groove, posting his best three games in the purple and gold in his last three. Meanwhile, the Clippers will desperately have to hope Powell makes his return tonight; they’ve struggled to score without their Most Improved Player candidate, with the league’s 12th-worst offense since his injury. Some big-money bettors are high on the Clippers, though, perhaps banking on Dončić — who missed the second night of the team’s last back-to-back — to sit.
The public is also high on the Lakers to cover the spread, with 78% of bets coming in on the team to lose by four or fewer points. This season, the two teams have been remarkably similar against the spread; the Lakers are 31-25-1, and the Clippers are 32-26. The Lakers have covered the spread in three of the last five matchups between the two teams. Big-money bettors, though, are banking on either Dončić or James to sit and backing the Clippers to win by five or more points.
Bettors, by and large, think that the game will be high-scoring, with 74% of bets coming in on the game total to go over 220.5 points. But both teams’ defenses have been elite; for the season, the Clippers have the league’s second-best defensive rating, and in February, it’s the Lakers who are in second. The over is just 26-31-1 in Clippers games this season and 27-30 in Lakers games, both of which are bottom-six marks in the league, and the under has hit in each of the Lakers’ last five games, and big-money bettors are fading the offenses. The under looks like an even surer bet if either Dončić or James sit.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for Wednesday’s game:
- Luka Dončić 9+ Rebounds (-160)
- Ivica Zubac Double-Double (-210)
- Luka Dončić Triple-Double (+500)
- Luka Dončić Double-Double (-150)
- Jaxson Hayes 1st Points Scorer (+600)
Three of the five most popular bets are on Dončić, even though he sat out the second night of the Lakers’ last back-to-back and is questionable for tonight, and as the team’s leading ball-handler, the Lakers’ game plan will look very different if he sits out. But if he plays, he’s a decent bet to snag nine or more rebounds and record a double-double, given that he’s recorded double-digit rebounds in each of his last four games. The Clippers won’t make it easy for him — they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest rebounds to opposing players this season — but I wouldn’t bet against Dončić. He’ll face a tougher path to a second triple-double in three games, though, given that the Clippers have allowed the sixth-fewest assists per game, especially if James sits out.
Hayes, too, is questionable after taking a hard fall in the fourth quarter last night against the Minnesota Timberwolves and suffering a hip injury. Although he ultimately returned to the game, JJ Redick might want to take it easy with him tonight, given the extremely difficult schedule that the Lakers will have over the next three weeks. Despite starting, Hayes has had the third-lowest first-quarter usage rate on the team since Dončić’s arrival, although did score the game’s first points in each of the Slovenian’s first two games with the team. He might get a little bit more first-quarter usage tonight; Hachimura has been replaced in the starting lineup by the much lower-usage Dorian Finney-Smith.
The only Clippers player among the five most popular player props is Zubac, who has made tremendous strides in his ninth season. This season, Zubac is averaging a career-high 15.3 points and 12.5 rebounds per game, the latter of which ranks fourth in the NBA. He has recorded 36 double-doubles this season, tied for the fifth-most in the league. Although the Lakers have allowed the fifth-fewest rebounds per game since the start of February, that might take a hit if Hayes sits. Also, Zubac has only been held under 10 rebounds eight times and 10 points once since January 1.
