Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as Questionable up until game time, with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Pacers lead guard Tyrese Haliburton to have a 50% chance to play. Haliburton is listed with groin soreness on the injury report tonight at home versus the Raptors.
With Haliburton’s respectable 21.5% usage rate and 35.8% assist rate this year, Haliburton averages 1.12 DraftKings Points Per Minute. His absence would create opportunity for additional stats for all the key Pacers, as well as potentially increased minutes for players like TJ McConnell and Andrew Nembhard. The Raptors allow the sixth-highest defensive efficiency rating in the league with 116.5 points allowed per 100 possessions, a soft matchup for whomever is on the court for Indiana tonight.
If Haliburton plays, Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections would expect him to contribute 18.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 8.3 assists. While he wouldn’t be a must-have for DraftKings tournaments tonight at an $8200 salary, Unabated’s bet simulation tools would see an appealing 13.4% Expected Value on Haliburton’s under 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists bet on DraftKings Sportsbook if he were to play.
If Haliburton sits, he’d have the following impact on Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections for some of his key teammates:
- Myles Turner projects for 16.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.2 assists (16.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.9 assists if Haliburton plays)
- Pascal Siakam projects for 21.4 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 4.1 assists (20.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 3.5 assists if Haliburton plays)
- Andrew Nembhard projects for 12.5 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 5.9 assists (10.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists if Haliburton plays)
- Bennedict Mathurin projects for 15.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.5 assists (13 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.8 assists if Haliburton plays)
If Haliburton is out, Unabated’s bet simulation tools would also expect 13.9% Expected Value on Aaron Nesmith’s over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists bet on DraftKings Sportsbook, 9.7% EV on Bennedict Mathurin’s over 20.5 PRAs, and 6.4% EV on Nembhard’s over 20.5 PRAs.
It’s a big NBA slate tonight with a lot of key Questionable tags as of this afternoon that will have huge ramifications on DraftKings tournaments and prop bet markets. Thankfully, we’ll know Tyrese Haliburton’s status in advance of games tipping off with Raptors-Pacers set for a 7PM Eastern start time.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
