Luka Doncic’s first matchup against his former team took center stage in the NBA world last night as the Lakers produced a 107-99 victory over the Mavericks. The dust will settle for what continues to be the biggest storyline in the league but the action will pick up on the court again tonight.
Nine games of NBA action will be taking place tonight with a loaded slate in the early window. Six of these nine games will be tipping off at 7:00 or 7:30 p.m. ET.
Most notably, the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks will face off with much less at stake than was the case in last year’s playoff series. The Celtics will play the Pistons in the second half of Boston’s back-to-back. The Raptors will look to bounce back from last night’s loss to the Celtics and take on the Indiana Pacers tonight.
In the later window, the Los Angeles Clippers and Chicago Bulls will square off at 8:00 p.m. ET. Then, the Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings will face off before the final matchup of the night, tipping off at 9:00 p.m. ET, between the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets.
With plenty of NBA action ahead, here are my favorite prop bets for the Feb. 26 slate of games.
Josh Hart Over 26.5 Points and Rebounds (-110)
After looking like one of the best budding rivalries in the NBA just a few months ago, the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks will face off with a different outlook. Joel Embiid’s injury news and underwhelming results from the team have shifted the focus beyond just this season with their eyes now on the draft lottery. New York has also underwhelmed relative to expectations, with their 0-7 record and -131 point differential against the top three teams continuing to cause doubts about their playoff outlook.
Regardless, New York needs to continue stacking up wins and has a great chance to do so tonight. Look for Josh Hart to be at the epicenter of the production with his work rate and rebounding ability set to be a notable contrast against this Sixers team. Looking at Philadelphia, they rank 17th in opponents’ points per game, 17th in opponents’ rebounds allowed, and 30th in team rebounding overall. They most recently allowed a season-high 142-point to the Bulls on Monday and are on an eight-game losing streak.
While he has more talented teammates, Josh Hart is the heart and soul of this Knicks team. The Villanova product is averaging 14.8 points and 9.7 rebounds per game this year and has recorded over 26.5 combined points and rebounds in three straight games entering this matchup. In the two games against the Sixers this year he has finished with 26 and 27 combined points and rebounds. Philadelphia is set to be without Joel Embiid, Guerschon Yabusele, Eric Gordon, Kyle Lowry, and Jared McCain for this matchup. With two of their top rebounders out of the picture and the outlook for the Sixers as bleak as ever, look for Hart to assert himself in this game. Count on him attacking the offensive glass and generating putbacks often to pave his way to over 26.5 points and rebounds for the fourth straight game.
Day’Ron Sharpe Over 8.5 Rebounds (+114)
The Brooklyn Nets remain early in their rebuild and will attempt to match up with the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. To make matters worse, Noah Clowney, D’Angelo Russell, and Cam Thomas will remain out for the Nets due to injury and Nic Claxton will miss this game due to suspension for accumulation of flagrant fouls. The outlook for the game is certainly bleak, but there is some value in the player prop market with Day’Ron Sharpe set to be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
So far this season Sharpe is averaging 8.2 points and 6.3 rebounds across his 17.3 minutes per game. Even in the limited minutes and coming off the bench, Sharpe has recorded nine or more rebounds in three of his last five games and in nine of the 35 games he has played this season. Expect his level of opportunity to expand without Clowney and Claxton not being available and for Sharpe to do what he does best by rebounding the basketball at a high rate. Sharpe tallied seven rebounds in the first matchup with the Thunder while only clocking 18:05 of game action.
While you are nitpicking when looking for weaknesses on this Thunder team, rebounding is near the top of the list. Oklahoma City ranks 14th in total rebounds as a team and 24th in opponents rebounds allowed. Sharpe is one of the best individual rebounders in the league but sees limited opportunity compared to some of the other top names. Look for him to make the most of his expanded chance tonight and record over 8.5 rebounds for the fourth time in the past six games.
Lonzo Ball Under 10.5 Points (-115)
Lonzo Ball’s return has been one of the brighter storylines in the NBA this season. The UCLA product missed the past two full seasons with his knee issues but has been back in action this year and earned an extension with this Bulls team. Even still, he has yet to fully return to the player he previously was and is averaging 7.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.3 assists across his 21.6 minutes of game action. He has been held under 10.5 points in 27 of the 33 games he has played. Ball also has fallen short of this number in back-to-back games leading into this matchup.
Look for tonight’s game to add to the list as Ball prepares to match up with the stingy Clippers defense. Los Angeles ranks fourth in the NBA in opponents’ points allowed, eighth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and fifth in opponents’ three-point percentage. This will be the second matchup between these two teams with Ball being held to just five points in the first game.
While it is nice to have Ball back on the floor, he is shooting a career-worst 35.5% from the floor and just 33.9% on three-point attempts. His ability to create space is still a work in progress and he will struggle against such a tenacious perimeter defense. Expect better days to be on the horizon but for Ball to be bothered by the Clippers tonight and held under 10.5 points.
Jeremy Sochan Over 15.5 Points & Rebounds (-105)
In the final matchup of the night, the Houston Rockets will host the San Antonio Spurs. These Western Conference foes are slated to be contenders for the foreseeable future, although the Spurs’ short-term outlook took a hit following the season-ending issue for Victor Wembanyama. Regardless, the action continues on the court with Wembanyama’s absence providing a shakeup in roles for the rest of the roster.
Jeremy Sochan has been reduced to a bench role for the past 15 games but this is a matchup that I like his chances. Overall he is averaging 11.4 points and 7.1 rebounds per game this season. Sochan has recorded over 15.5 points and rebounds in 23 of the 37 games he has played. Across the past 15 games, in which he is coming off the bench, the Baylor product is still averaging 8.5 points and 5.6 rebounds reaching 16+ combined points and rebounds seven times.
Houston ranks fifth in the NBA in opponents’ points allowed and eighth in opponents’ rebounds per game. However, Sochan tallied a season-high 22 points and nine rebounds in the first matchup between these two teams. Look for him to build off this type of effort and for his athleticism and commitment on the glass to have success against this Rockets team. While his workload has been scaled back, this number has dipped too low for the 21-year-old, and look for Sochan to record over 15.5 combined points and assists for the 24th time this season.
