The Philadelphia 76ers are pulling off an expertly-executed tank. Joel Embiid appears to be done for the time being, if not the season, as doctors scramble to figure out how to limit swelling in his knee. Other key contributors — Eric Gordon, Kyle Lowry, and Guerschon Yabusele — will also miss tonight’s game. Philadelphia has lost each of its last eight games.
Meanwhile, the New York Knicks have lost two straight games to the top two teams in the Eastern Conference and will be looking to bounce back tonight when they host the 76ers for a 7 p.m. ET nationally-televised clash, although their position at third in the East is relatively secure.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Knicks are 10-point favorites (-455 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 231. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is +350 on the Moneyline.
Betting Splits
Bettors are trusting The Process tank job, as 90% of bets and 80% of the handle has come in on New York, higher than its 79% implied win probability. Across their eight-game losing streak, the 76ers have had a negative-11.3 net rating, the second-worst in the league, even though Embiid suited up for five of the eight contests. Philadelphia’s most recent game was its absolute nadir: it fell behind by as many as 50 points midway through the fourth quarter to the Chicago Bulls, who had lost 15 out of their last 19 games entering the contest. A few big-money bettors are backing the 76ers to find lightning in a bottle, by which I mean a decent game from Paul George.
Unsurprisingly, the public is also high on the Knicks to win big, given Philadelphia’s recent form, with 77% of all bets and 92% of the handle coming in on New York to win by double digits. This season, the Knicks have been 27-29-1 against the spread, merely the 19th-best record in the league, but the 76ers have underperformed by the most, going just 20-37 against the spread so far. In Philadelphia’s most recent game against a team of New York’s ilk — against the Boston Celtics on February 20 — the team lost by 20 points, in a game that Embiid played. This season, the Knicks have won 23 games by at least 10 points, the sixth-most of any team in the league.
Overall, though, bettors are low on both teams’ offenses, with 56% of bets and 59% of the handle coming in on the game to go under 231 points. In the last 10 games, these teams have had the second- and third-worst defenses in the league, while New York’s offense has ranked 10th and the 76ers’ 23rd. Three of Philadelphia’s last five games have finished under the point total, while two of the Knicks’ last five have, and for the season as a whole, the over has hit more times than the under.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for Wednesday’s game:
- Josh Hart Triple-Double (+700)
- Tyrese Maxey 3+ Three-Pointers Made (-205)
- Karl-Anthony Towns 40+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (-150)
- Jalen Brunson 1st Points Scorer (+475)
- Quentin Grimes 2+ Three-Pointers Made (-210)
Three of the five most popular bets are on New York players, and the only two on 76ers have relatively short odds. It’s hard to predict much about Philadelphia these days, but Maxey to hit three or more threes — which he’s done in 32 of his 49 games — is more or less a sure thing, especially since he’ll have heavier usage with Embiid out. This season, the Knicks have allowed opponents to shoot 38.1% from beyond the arc, the best mark in the league. Grimes to make two or more threes — which he’s done five times in his seven games as a 76er — is also pretty safe, especially now that he’s a starter.
The most interesting bet is on Hart, who’s one of the best pound-for-pound rebounders in NBA history and returned from a two-game absence on Sunday with a 20-point, 11-rebound, nine-assist performance. He’s recorded seven triple-doubles this season, the fifth-most of any player, and over their eight-game losing streak, Philadelphia has allowed the 10th-most points, fifth-most rebounds, and 11th-most assists per game. In fact, Hart recorded a triple-double in both of the teams’ earlier meetings this season, the former of which Embiid was active for.
As for the bets on New York’s two All-Stars, Towns has recorded 40 or more combined P/R/A in 28 of his 47 starts, and Brunson is 12th in the league in first-quarter usage rate among 210 players who have appeared in at least 40 games.
