Clay Holmes has spent the majority of his MLB career as a relief pitcher, most recently pitching at the back end of the Yankees’ bullpen. Holmes lost the Yankees’ closer role late last season and left to sign with the Mets in free agency, which has generally resulted in him being overlooked going into 2025. Holmes’ ADP is nearing 300 in most public fantasy baseball leagues.
The Mets have converted Holmes into a starting pitcher to see if they can unlock something with their pitching lab. Starting is not entirely new to Holmes, as Holmes was a starter in the minor leagues and recorded over 100 starts before making his big league debut.
Holmes made his Mets spring training debut over the weekend and displayed several exciting new pitch shapes.
Changeup
Holmes’ most notable new addition is a kick-change. A kick-change is a unique changeup that was popularized by Tread Athletics. On a kick-change, a finger is spiked, which “kicks” the ball on a sideways axis with a spin direction between 3:00 and 4:00, which gives the pitch more drop than a normal changeup. Holmes threw several kick-changes in his first spring start, and the pitch looked excellent. Holmes averaged just under one inch of induced vertical break (IVB) on the pitch, which makes the vertical drop plus compared to the average changeup. According to Tread, Holmes has routinely averaged negative vert on his kick-change in training sessions and has even reached -10 inches, which is beyond nasty. Holmes throwing a nasty kick-change will give him a better out pitch against left-handed batters.
Improved fastball mix: sinkers, four-seamers and cutters
Holmes is now alternating the shapes of his fastballs, which will allow him to tailor his fastball usage for optimal matchups. Holmes’ sinker—which was his primary pitch with the Yankees—is one of the nastier sinkers in the game, but the movement of the pitch makes it a much better offering against right-handed batters than left-handed batters. Holmes’ sinker uses seam-shifted wake to give it strong amounts of movement, which takes the ball away from the swing paths of right-handed batters to induce weak contact. However, the sink and tail make the pitch run into the swing paths of left-handed batters, which makes it a suboptimal primary fastball vs. lefties. Instead, a primary four-seam fastball/cutter combo vs. lefties is a more optimal shape.
In his first spring start with the Mets, Holmes showcased a four-seam fastball that has a significantly different shape than his usual two-seam sinking fastball. Holmes averaged about 17 inches of IVB on his four-seamer, a tick better than the league average IVB on a four-seamer, which is between 15 and 16 inches. It’s also significantly more vert than his sinker, which averages about five inches of IVB. Holmes throwing a four-seamer will allow him to pitch up in the zone more effectively, giving him more ways to get batters out. It could also work to improve the effectiveness of his sinker, as the vertical movement separation of 12 inches between his sinker and four-seamer is large.
Holmes also showcased a cutter in his first spring start. Holmes’ cutter averaged around the same IVB as his sinker, but has an inch of gloveside movement, which will give him a firmer pitch that moves toward lefties. Holmes averages about 18 inches of armside horizontal movement on his sinker, and throwing a cutter that moves gloveside will give him close to 20 inches of horizontal separation between his sinker and cutter.
Holmes being able to alternate the shape of his fastball will be helpful in giving more looks to batters, which will make him less predictable and allow him to pitch around the swing paths of hitters more effectively.
2025 fantasy baseball outlook
The biggest fantasy question mark with Holmes is probably inning volume. Holmes has not surpassed 70 innings pitched in any season in his MLB career and he threw only 63 innings last season. It’s uncertain if Holmes will have the stamina to sustain a starter’s workload over the course of a full season in his first year removed from the bullpen, which could put a cap on his overall fantasy production. However, Holmes has an ADP nearing 300, so he won’t cost much on draft day, and if he’s able to put together decent inning volume, he has an excellent chance to provide big value and significantly outperform his ADP in 2025.
