If you couldn’t tell, college hoops is full-court pressing its way into your cultural consciousness now that the Super Bowl is over. Indeed, we all had our unexpected fun with the Four Nations Tournament, and we’re all drinking in the fragrance of Spring that comes when pitchers and catchers report. No matter. We’re but weeks away from March Madness, and there are tournament implications every day of the week this time of year. We’ve got Mississippi State, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia basketball all to look forward to.
It’s Tuesday, so we’ve got a predictably-bloated slate of games tonight. Nothing with quite the verve of a Houston vs. Texas Tech, but plenty of marquee contests with action to be had.
Here are my plays for tonight’s slate, starting with a back-to-the-well situation with Todd Golden’s Gators.
Florida Gators at Georgia Bulldogs, 7:00pm E.T.
I know the last time I backed the Gators in conference play, we got smoked because Walter Clayton Jr. injured his ankle (twice!) in the showdown against Auburn. I still think Florida would’ve gotten the job done there had that not happened, but hey. Sour grapes this old are just raisins.
In any case, we’re backing the Gators at -7.5 tonight to take care of business in Georgia. I think the line is too forgiving, and I think the Gators will win by double digits. The Gators defeated the Bulldogs 89-59 earlier this season, limiting Georgia to 35.6% shooting and holding star Asa Newell to 4-of-14 shooting. Georgia has reason to believe their top-scorer can let it rip with more efficiency now, however; Newell is averaging 15.4 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. He’s regarded as a potential lottery pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Also for the Bulldogs: Sophomore guard Silas Demary Jr. has also been strong, averaging 12.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game, with 19 points per game in his last four contests.
Georgia is still in contention for an NCAA Tournament spot, with several winnable games ahead. A win here would boost their tournament chances significantly.
Florida is led by that trio of viper guards—Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, and Will Richard—each averaging over 12 points per game, with Clayton Jr. leading at 17.1. And here’s the kicker: Alex Condon, expected to mercifully return from an ankle injury, could be a key X-factor in the paint tonight with his 6’11” athleticism.
Florida’s Alex Condon (ankle) is questionable for Tuesday night’s game against Georgia, per the SEC Injury Report.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) February 25, 2025
Averages 10.6 PPG and 7.8 RPG.
Sam Alexis (undisclosed) is OUT.
Bulldogs guard Tyrin Lawrence (leg) is probable.
Averages 8.3 PPG.
Georgia wants to play desperate, and they will. They played desperate—and well—against Auburn. But I can’t talk myself, statistically, into believing Georgia covers against the spread-covering machine that is Todd Golden’s 2025 Florida Gators.
Condon’s return is what really pushed me over the edge, however.
Best bet: Florida -6.5 (-115) for 1u
Click here to automatically fill your bet slip with Florida -6.5 with me at the DKN Betting Group!
Mississippi State at Alabama, 9:00pm E.T.
Lots of folks seem a bit spooked by this spread, even though it hasn’t quite crept up to laying double-digits on Alabama. Let’s be clear about this mismatch, though: Mississippi State ranks toward the dregs of the SEC barrel in both defensive-effective FG% and 3P% in the SEC—14th in both, to be exact. Circumstantially, folks seem to love the Bulldogs after their gritty 93-87 loss to Oklahoma in Norman. But a poor free-throw percentage carries, and transcends circumstances—you don’t love the ‘Dogs’ paltry ability to get to the free-throw line, especially in a game against a team that can stretch the offensive half-court on the other side.
I think it’s entirely possible Mississippi State has come to terms with the fact that they’re not a barn-burner team, what with that scorefest against the Sooners close on their mind. So I think this means they’ll try to play hard-nosed defense against the Tide early to keep it close. This might result in a low-scoring first half, or a total that goes handily under the current line of 173.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Marcus Sears is in his purest form: he’s second in SEC scoring (19.7 ppg) and leads Alabama at 18.9 points and 4.8 assists per game on the total campaign. He’ll get to the foul line, even though Mississippi State is good at limiting opponents. Sears is imposing his will.
Best bet: Alabama -8.5 (-110) for 1u
Click here to automatically fill your bet slip with Alabama -8.5 with me at the DKN Betting Group!
Quick-hitters and leans
Minimal analysis, but other games I’m looking to sprinkle on tonight. You know I love me a west coast tuck-me-in game.
UNLV -2.5 (-115) at San Jose State – I’m just a UNLV guy, I’ll be honest.
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan -3.5 (-110) – this is all about Eagles’ Jalen Terry’s tear.
Northwestern ML (+125) at Minnesota – Minnesota is on a three-game home losing streak. A hot Wildcats team—specifically hot on the road right now—looks to make it four straight. I like their chances.
