While the three teams at the top of the Eastern Conference are set, there is another tier of three teams that are seeking to avoid them. The Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers, and Detroit Pistons are separated by just one game for the fourth seed in the conference, and the worst of the three has a difficult first-round matchup against the New York Knicks, while the other two will play each other.
That makes the Bucks’ 8 p.m. ET clash against the Houston Rockets critical for both squads. If Milwaukee wins, it’ll require a huge performance from Giannis Antetokounmpo, who’s averaging 31.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game this season.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bucks are 3.5-point favorites and the total is set for 227. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around the Greek Freak.
Best Giannis Antetokounmpo Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Giannis Antetokounmpo 30+ Points (+115)
Houston won’t make it easy for Antetokounmpo, since it allows just 109.5 points per 100 possessions, the fourth-stingiest rate in the league. But most of the Rockets’ above-average defenders — Dillon Brooks, Tari Eason, and Amen Thompson — operate primarily on the perimeter. While center Alperen Şengün has made significant strides as a defender in his fourth season — indeed, he’s sixth in defensive win shares so far this season — he doesn’t have the athleticism or size to stop Antetokoumpo, who is the 12th-most efficient among 53 players averaging at least 10 drives per game. Furthermore, Houston is below average in points in the paint and second-chance points. Antetokounmpo is the league leader in points in the paint and 12th in second-chance points. The Rockets also allow the second-highest free throw attempt rate in the NBA, and Antetokounmpo has led the league in that statistic for each of the past three seasons.
He hasn’t yet scored 30 points since returning from a calf strain that cost him the last six games prior to the All-Star break, but he was on a minutes restriction and played fewer than 24 minutes in each of his first two games since his return. Reportedly, Doc Rivers aimed to limit him to 31 minutes on Sunday against the Miami Heat, which Antetokounmpo exceeded by 55 seconds. For the season, he averages 34.2 minutes per game and has had 28 30-plus-point performances, and he has recorded more than one point per minute in 16 of his 44 games. If he was on a 31-minute restriction two nights ago, he’ll almost certainly be able to play more tonight, if he’s on a restriction at all.
Giannis Antetokounmpo O1.5 Blocks (+124)
Besides their struggles in the paint, Houston has struggled mightily at preventing blocks this season. The Rockets are allowing 6.1 blocks per game, the second-most in the league. Part of it has to do with their division — the San Antonio Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies, Dallas Mavericks, and New Orleans Pelicans all rank in the league’s top eight for blocked shots this season — and part of it has to do with the fact that their tallest player, the six-foot-11 Şengün, has a mostly ground-bound play style. On a per-game basis, both Şengün and Jalen Green are among the league’s 15 most frequently-blocked players.
Antetokounmpo hasn’t had a two-block game since January 23, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t capable of it; in November, he had a streak of six consecutive two-plus-block games. His 3.4% block percentage this season is the fourth-highest in his career and the third-highest of his MVP-level prime. He travels the 38th-shortest distance on defense of the 101 players averaging more than 30 minutes per game this season, 0.03 miles fewer than he traveled on average last season, indicating that been able he’s able to camp out in and around the paint — where more blocks happen — more frequently this season. The margins between a one-block and two-block game are extremely thin, and an off-balance, ill-advised floater attempt by Şengün — as he is wont to do — could easily get him there.
