The one-man Trae Young show in Atlanta hit its crescendo yesterday in an epic duel between him and Detroit Pistons point guard Cade Cunningham in a game that the Pistons ultimately won, 148-143. Young’s 38-point performance was his third consecutive game scoring exactly that many points.
In six games since the Hawks dealt De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanović at the trade deadline, Young has averaged 32.0 points and 11.2 assists per game, although he hasn’t been particularly efficient while doing so. Part of his inefficiency — and his 6.2 turnovers per game — has to do with the fact that he’s had the second-highest usage rate across that span.
The Young show will continue tonight against the Miami Heat, as Atlanta will welcome another All-Star point guard — Tyler Herro — to the Peach State for a 7:30 p.m. ET clash.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Hawks are one-point favorites and the total is set for 231. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around the Ice Trae.
Best Trae Young Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Trae Young 35+ Points (+295)
Young and 38-point games don’t quite have the same magnetic pairing as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and 31-point games did last season, and his streak of three 35-plus-point games is already tied for the longest such streak of his career. But I don’t see a reason why his streak would suddenly stop tonight. It’s not like his current streak is a product of hot shooting — he’s shooting just 42.0% from the field and 35.9% from deep over his last three games, only a marginal improvement over his season averages — it’s purely usage. There aren’t any Hawks who didn’t play last night and will play tonight, so there’s no reason why Young won’t get 25 or more shots. It’s not like Herro is a particularly impressive defensive deterrent.
Miami’s identity is grounded in its defense — it has the 11th-best defensive rating in the NBA this season — but over the five games since Andrew Wiggins made his debut with the team, its defensive efficiency has slipped to 20th. Sure, the Heat have faced some good offenses over that span — the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder — but Wiggins is a downgrade from Jimmy Butler on defense and is still adjusting to Erik Spoelstra’s schemes. Young is averaging 10.7 points per game at the free throw line across his hot streak, and Miami doesn’t concede a lot of free throws…but neither do the New York Knicks, who Young drew 14 trips to the charity stripe against on February 12.
Trae Young O3.5 Three-Pointers Made (-120)
As long as Young’s usage remains sky-high, he should continue to do most of his damage from beyond the arc, even though the Heat have allowed the league’s third-highest field goal percentage from his preferred floater range, between five and nine feet from the basket. This season, Young has attempted a career-high 48.9% of his shots from beyond the arc, the 11th-highest rate of 28 players who have appeared in at least 40 games and attempted at least 15 field goal attempts per game. Unsurprisingly, he has hit four or more three-pointers in four of his last five games.
Plus, the Heat have conceded plenty of made three-pointers this season. Miami has allowed 13.8 threes per game, the ninth-most in the league, on a season-long basis, including 15.2 per game since the trade deadline. Given that Young has made approximately 20% of Atlanta’s threes this season, Miami is expected to allow 3.2 made threes to him tonight on average. However, since the trade deadline, Young has accounted for 24.7% of the Hawks’ made threes, which would raise his expected number to 3.76 threes tonight. This is before taking into account the fact that the Heat will probably allow more than their post-deadline average of 42 attempts against an Atlanta team that plays at the league’s third-fastest pace.
