Two teams with similar results in the 2024 postseason elicited dramatically different reactions. For the Denver Nuggets, a conference semifinals exit was a disappointment, but for the Indiana Pacers, a conference finals defeat was a surprising and impressive outcome.
This season, both teams are gearing up for the 2025 playoffs with an impressive campaign so far. The Nuggets are 37-20 — third in the Western Conference — and have won nine of their last 10 games, while the Pacers are 32-23, good for fourth in the East, and have won seven of their last 10 games.
The two teams will meet tonight for a 7 p.m. ET showdown.
Denver is a five-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-192 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 245.5. Meanwhile, Indiana is +160 on the Moneyline.
Tyrese Haliburton to Record a Double-Double (-115)
The struggles that Haliburton experienced during the second half of last season have persisted into this season. The averages look okay in the end — 18.1 points and 8.6 assists per game on 37.1% shooting from beyond the arc — but he’s definitely been inconsistent, scoring fewer than 10 points on 10 separate occasions this season. Still, he’s recorded two very solid games since the All-Star break — averaging 25.5 points, 10.5 assists, and 2.0 steals per game across that span — and has attempted more shots than Pascal Siakam in each of the last two games.
Plus, he’ll be facing a Nuggets defense that has really struggled against opposing point guards this season, allowing the ninth-most points and most assists per game this season. This season, Haliburton ranks fifth in potential assists per game, so as long as his teammates hit their shots — the Pacers shoot the league’s fourth-highest field goal percentage — he should have no problem getting to 10 assists tonight. His 12-assist performance last night marked his first double-double since January 10, but he recorded exactly nine assists four times across that span, so it’s not like his playmaking chops have fallen off much.
Aaron Nesmith 2+ Three-Pointers Made (+140)
After a sprained ankle held him out of 35 games early in the season, Nesmith has reclaimed his spot in Indiana’s starting lineup over the last four games and has been relatively solid across that span, scoring double-digit points in each of his last two games. The 25-year-old had a season-high 19 points last night against the Clippers, making seven of his 11 shots from the field and two of his five attempts from deep. He has now hit two or more three-pointers in three consecutive games, his second-longest streak of the season.
He’s a good bet to extend that streak to four against Denver, which allows 13.9 made threes per game, the sixth-most of any team in the league, especially given that opponents are shooting the 11th-highest percentage from deep. In particular, it’ll be all systems go for Nesmith if he gets matched up against Nuggets shooting guard Christian Braun, against whom opponents have shot 8.8 percentage points better from beyond the arc, the highest mark among 107 players who have appeared in at least 40 games and been the nearest defender on four or more three-pointers per game.
Russell Westbrook O4.5 Rebounds (+100)
I might’ve disrespected The Brodie a little bit in my piece last Wednesday; when assessing Nikola Jokić’s case to become the greatest player of all time, I argued that the offseason acquisition of Westbrook didn’t significantly improve Denver’s championship chances, given his questionable playoff history. But Westbrook’s late-career renaissance playing alongside Jokić has been one of the better stories of the season, and he didn’t average double-digit rebounds in four different seasons — a remarkable feat given his six-foot-four frame — for no reason. Even at the age of 36, Westbrook is all hustle, and he’s posted nine double-digit rebounding performances this season.
Meanwhile, Indiana has conceded the 12th-most rebounds per game of any team in the league. Haliburton is a non-factor on the boards, Siakam hasn’t commanded the glass quite as well as he during his Toronto stint, and Myles Turner is one of the least effective rebounders of any starting center in basketball. Westbrook hasn’t grabbed more than five rebounds in a game since January 29, but he missed seven games since then with a hamstring strain and neither of Denver’s post All-Star break games have been particularly competitive, so he’s gotten slightly fewer minutes than usual. Westbrook’s four-rebound performance on Saturday against the Los Angeles Lakers was excusable, given that Los Angeles has allowed the third-fewest boards in the league over its last 10 games.
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