The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history, and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $750K Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
The Field
“Be cognizant” is a statement we’re likely to hear at some point this week, particularly as the players walk to the 15th tee box to hit their first shot in the famous bear trap. The Cognizant Classic (formerly and forever the Honda Classic) is back, and for viewers, that means lots of water balls and (potentially) lots of final hole drama.
This event changed names in 2024 but the venue (PGA National) remains the same, and the tougher par 71 (formerly a par 70) has helped keep this tournament towards the top of the favorites for many fans — even despite the field often lacking star power.
The field this week doesn’t have a ton of big names but Open Champion Shane Lowry will be teeing it up along with Sungjae Im. Other past winners of this event in the field include Russell Henley, Rickie Fowler and Keith Mitchell. The current field is set at 144 players, and the event will feature the PGA TOUR’s regular cut-line rule with the top 65 players and ties making the weekend after Friday.
This has typically been a tough event and venue for scoring, with lots of water in play and unpredictable winds. Even with the course now set at a par 71, don’t expect big daily fantasy golf totals since birdies will be at an absolute premium.
The Course
PGA National—Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
Par 71, 7,147 yards; Greens: Bermudagrass
PGA National was redesigned in 1990 by Jack Nicklaus and has been the host of this event since 2007. The course always plays as one of the toughest on the PGA TOUR. It was ranked the fifth-hardest venue on the PGA TOUR in 2019 and the third-hardest in 2021. To give you some idea of what’s in store this week: since 2012, the winning score at PGA National has failed to pass 10-under-par on all but two occasions. Calmer conditions allowed the winner to reach 14-under last year, but the wind and weather can be a big factor with the stadium course environment and the late winter date.
As for setup, PGA National now plays as a par 71 but will still play at just under 7,200 yards in length. For 2024, the 10th hole (previously a longer par 4) was lengthened by 20 yards or so, and turned into a par 5. It will now play as one of the easiest holes on the course and will likely allow us to see another mid-teens winner in terms of scoring. Last season, Austin Eckroat got to 17-under par, and I would expect that without terrible weather, the winner here will be between 14-to-17 under par most seasons.
The greens are still Tifeagle Bermuda and can play quite fast if the weather gets hot enough. They will be even tougher to hold if the wind is up. Green in Regulation %’s at this event are some of the lowest we’ll see all season and typically fall 5-7% under the PGA TOUR average. As such, PGA National, as you might expect, puts a huge premium on ball-striking. It rewards players who can pound the greens hole after hole, and also those who possess the short game necessary to navigate the plethora of greenside bunkers.
While the venue often gets compared to places like TPC Sawgrass and Harbour Town, its best-comparable course on the PGA TOUR is likely TPC Southwind, the host of the FedEx St. Jude Classic and one of the tougher par 70’s on the schedule. Daniel Berger (winner of Southwind 2016 and 2017, playoff loser PGA National 2015) and Sepp Straka (winner of PGA National 2022 and playoff loser TPC Southwind 2022) are a couple of the players who provide good links between the two venues.
For statistical purposes, solid overall ball striking is key to avoiding big numbers, but it’s generally on approach where players can make up the most ground. Four of the last five winners at PGA National — Keith Mitchell, Sungjae Im, Chris Kirk, and Matt Jones — gained over +5.0 strokes on their approaches for the week and most of the winners here have also tended to be very positive in their stats around the green for the week.
Overall, it’s a week to emphasize recent form (mainly ball-striking and around-the-green play) and use course history as a solid tiebreaker when deciding between players. Players can have success at PGA National out of the gate but it’s also been a venue that rewards those who understand the patience needed to survive such a demanding venue.
2025 weather outlook: This event can see high winds given we are in Florida near the Gulf. That said, this week doesn’t have a ton of high winds in the forecast, which should make it easier for the players to traverse the Bear Trap. Thursday is relatively calm with winds rising slightly but staying in the 7-8 MPH range. Friday, there is the possibility for some early morning gusts, a situation worth keeping an eye on. All told, the highs should be in the 75-degree Fahrenheit range most days with little chance of rain or crazy gusts. If Friday morning winds develop into something bigger, then the TH a.m./FRI p.m. wave could be the one to target for classic DFS lineups.
Last Five Winners
2024: Austin Eckroat -17 (over Min Woo Lee and Erik van Rooyen -14)
2023: Chris Kirk -14 (over Eric Cole playoff)
2022: Sepp Straka -10 (over Shane Lowry -9)
2021: Matt Jones -12 (over Brandon Hagy -7)
2020: Sungjae Im -6 (over Mackenzie Hughes -5)
Winning Trends
- Nine of the past 14 winners had a finish of 13th or better at this event before their win.
- 12 of the last 14 winners here had made the cut at PGA National at least once before their win.
- Five of the last six winners of The Honda Classic had a top-10 West Coast finish on the season before winning this event (Seven of the last eight Honda winners had produced a T16 or better on the West Coast.)
- *Note: 2024 winner Austin Eckroat fit none of these trends…
Winners’ Stats and Course Overview
2024 Winner: Austin Eckroat (14-under par)
2024 lead-in form (T38-MC-T37-T35-T42)
SG: OTT—+3.5
SG: APP—+5.8
SG: TTG—+8.9
SG: ATG—-0.5
SG: PUTT—+3.7
- Strokes Gained: Approach and approach proximity are both stats to emphasize at PGA National, and most of the winners and top finishers gain the majority of their strokes against the field in this area.
- 2020 and 2021 winners Sungjae Im and Matt Jones both gained over +5.0 strokes on approach, while 2022 winner Chris Kirk relied even more on his approaches gaining 6.3 on approach alone in his win.
- Straka (2022) was a bit of an anomaly in that he gained more strokes putting and off the tee than he did on approach or around the green.
- Eckroat actually lost strokes around the green but gained 5.8 strokes on approach and over 3.0 strokes putting.
- That said, outside of Eckroat, seven of the last eight winners at PGA National gained strokes around the green for the week, and three of the last six — Mitchell, Im, and Jones — gained +3.5 strokes ATG, or more, for the week.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Rickie Fowler +5000 and $7,600
Comparables:
- Brian Harman +5500 and $7,700
- Luke Clanton +5000 and $7,700
- Andrew Novak +5000 and $8,000
Kurt Kitayama +4000 and $8,300
Comparables:
- Cameron Young +4000 and $8,800
- Jordan Spieth +4000 and $8,600
- Michael Kim +4500 and $8,400
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Sepp Straka ($9,400; best finishes: win-2022, T5-2023): The Austrian has often saved his best for this week. His first career win came at PGA National in 2022 and he followed up that win with a T5 here in 2023. Straka’s elite iron play and penchant for tougher conditions make him a regular consideration for this event.
2. Sungjae Im ($9,800; best finishes: win-2020, T8-2021): Im has played PGA National six times now and landed finishes of first and T8 over the last five years. He did miss the cut at PGA National in 2022 and 2024 but often saves his best golf for the Florida swing. It wouldn’t be shocking if he put a slow start to 2025 behind him this week.
3. Shane Lowry ($10,500; best finish: 2nd – 2022, T5 – 2023): Lowry is another player who often finds his footing in Florida. The Irishman is 5/5 in terms of made cuts at this event the last five seasons and has posted top-five finishes at PGA National the last three years.
4. Russell Henley ($10,700; best finish: T8 -2020, 3rd – 2021): Henley won this event way back in 2014 and has added to more top-10 finishes to his resume here; a T3 in 2021 and a T8 in 2020. He scuffled to a T41 at this venue last season but has started the season well with a top 5 at Pebble.
5. Byeong Hun An ($9,000; best finish: T2 – 2020, T5 – 2018): An has played well in Florida throughout his career, even grabbing a win at the LECOM Classic while on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2021. He’s played PGA National six times in his career and finished inside the top five twice. He finished T21 at this venue last year.
Recent Form
1. Daniel Berger ($9,900, T12 – T2): Berger is coming in red-hot. He posted a solid T2 in Phoenix behind Thomas Detry and then a T12 at the longer Torrey Pines. PGA National is like a second home for him so he could be in for another big week.
2. Denny McCarthy ($9,300, T5 – T16): McCarthy continues to come close to shipping his first PGA trophy. He’s finished T5 and T16 in his last two starts while gaining big on approach in both events. If he continues to strike the ball like that he should be in the mix again.
3. Alex Smalley ($7,900, T10 – T21): Smalley has played well this season and came close last week in Mexico where he finished T10. He’s gained strokes on approach in five straight events and looks well-suited for this tougher test.
4. Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,400, T8 – T36): Hojgaard has started to find some form of late. The Dane gained big on approach in Phoenix and then posted a T8 last week in Mexico where he gained over 4.0 strokes on approach and around the greens. He missed the cut at PGA National on his only other appearance at this event.
5. Lee Hodges ($7,400, 8th – T57- T33): Hodges doesn’t have a ton of big results yet this season but is playing consistent golf. He’s fifth in strokes gained approach stats over the last six weeks and has gained strokes on approach in four straight starts.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Griffin and Novak, solid values
If you’re going with a balanced approach for cash game contests, which isn’t a poor idea given the lack of a heavy favorite or favorites, then both Ben Griffin ($8,500) and Andrew Novak ($8,000) stand out as good core plays. Griffin is coming off his best week of the season in Mexico where he gained a ton on approach and has a great short game built for a place like PGA National. Novak has struck the ball well this season and finished T9 at this venue last year. You can pair either man with one of the top three names or use them to make an 8-9k heavy lineup. Other lower potential value targets lower down include Brian Harman ($7,700) and Lucas Glover ($7,800).
Tournaments: Kitayama under the radar
Kitayama ($8,300) is coming off a missed cut in Mexico, but he is the sort of player who can bounce back in a hurry. The American finished T3 at this venue just a few seasons ago and has won in Florida before. He still ranks out well from a strokes-gained approach perspective in recent form and likely won’t be heavily rostered in big GPPs. Bud Cauley is another name lower down who may not get a ton of love but has upside at this venue. He’s had a nice start to the year and has played this venue well before, including finishing T12 here in 2019. Other potential GPP targets this week include Matteo Mannassero ($6,800), Victor Perez ($6,800), and David Lipsky ($6,200).
MY PICK: Michael Kim ($8,400)
There are few pros playing better golf than Michael Kim right now. The American finished T13 for the second time in a row last week and gained strokes across the board, including 4.5 strokes around the greens. Kim’s West Coast swing saw him bag two top-15 finishes and a T2 in Phoenix where he shot a second-round 63 on another Stadium Course in Scottsdale.
Kim’s career record at PGA National doesn’t look so hot (six starts and 4 MCs) but most of those missed cuts came back when he was a far less consistent golfer. Going back to the fall, he’s now finished top-15 in five of his last nine starts and is third in strokes gained total stats over the last 24 rounds. Further, most of his best finishes have come on accuracy-driven courses similar to PGA National such as TPC Stadium, TPC Scottsdale, and TPC Deere Run, where he bagged his only career win in 2018.
For DFS, his lack of course history may keep him lower-owned in bigger GPPs and for betting, his +4500 outright number is much bigger than the +3000 he was going off at last week, making him a nice target for play on DraftKings Sportsbook.
MY SLEEPER: Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,500)
Bezuidenhout is another player who had recent success on the West Coast in Phoenix, where he finished T4. The South African predictably regressed at the much longer Torrey Pines but should be in great shape for a big week at the more accuracy-driven PGA National.
While he can struggle with his ball striking, it’s typical that we see Bezuidenhout come to life with his iron play when we get to these target-driven courses. He gained 2.4 strokes on approach in Phoenix, 5.1 strokes on approach at the Wyndham last summer, and 7.0 strokes on approach at the PLAYERS last March… all performances which were preceded by poor statistical weeks.
A master putter/scrambler who comes into this event ranked ninth in strokes gained putting stats, I like that he took last week off and is focusing on PGA National, a course he’s played three times before, and also where he finished T25 at back in 2022 in his debut. For DFS, he’s a player I wouldn’t hesitate to be overweight on in GPPs at this price, and also like for betting as an outright (+6500) and top 10/20 target (+650/+280) on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $750K Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
