It’s been a down year in the ACC, but North Carolina is picking up steam, and really needs to continue winning if it wants to have any chance at reaching the NCAA Tournament. The Tar Heels are priced as short road favorites on Monday at Florida State. Let’s breakdown a college basketball pick below.
UNC at FSU (7:00pm ET)
Carolina hit rock bottom earlier this month in a blowout loss at Duke, which marked its fourth loss in five games. However, the Heels have bounced-back of late, now winners of four of their last five, with the lone loss on the road at Clemson. Now, UNC has been favored by at least 5.5-points in each of its last three wins, so this will be the tightest spread its faced recently.
While the season hasn’t been a success, the Tar Heels really just haven’t been getting any big wins over better teams — going 1-8 when priced as the underdog. When UNC goes off the favorite this season, its been taking care of business for the most part — 16-3 straight up. While winning on the road appears to be an issue for Carolina at 4-6, the Heels have been winning the games they’re supposed to. UNC is just 1-3 ATS at a road favorite, but have managed to win all four games outright.
Florida State has not exactly thrived in the home underdog role this season, going 1-2. FSU has a -9.0 points per game margin in those games, and is failing to cover by almost five points.
In a spot where a loss would potentially derail their season, I think the Tar Heels improve to 5-0 straight up as a road favorite this season.
College Basketball Pick: UNC ML (-130) 1-unit
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