After back-to-back nights with nine NBA games on the schedule, Saturday has a milder slate of just five games. Each matchup will have some significant seeding implications with the playoffs beginning to approach.
At 5:00 p.m. ET, the action will begin with a matchup between the Phoenix Suns and Chicago Bulls. The Suns look to be on the verge of implosion, as they are on a four-game losing skid and have dropped to 11th place in the Western Conference. Chicago seemed to prioritize its long-term rebuild by trading away Zach LaVine at the deadline this season, but despite its five-game losing streak, it has maintained the 10th seed in the Eastern Conference.
Right behind the Bulls in the Eastern Conference are the Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets, who each hold a record of 20-35 on the season. These two teams will face off at 7:30 p.m. ET in a matchup that holds much larger seeding implications than anyone expected at this stage of the season. Then, the Denver Nuggets will host the Los Angeles Lakers with Nikola Jokic facing Luka Doncic for the first time in his new uniform. In the late slate, the Houston Rockets will travel to take on the Utah Jazz before the Charlotte Hornets and Portland Trail Blazers close down the night in a game set to tip-off at 10:00 p.m. ET.
With the stage set and the NBA beginning to settle down after a hectic stretch, here are my favorite prop bets for the Feb. 22 slate of games.
Devin Booker Under 27.5 Points (-115)
The Phoenix Suns have a strong case for the NBA team that should be panicking the most heading into the home stretch of the season. They have dropped four straight games leading into their matchup with the Bulls and are just 1-7 in their last eight. The body language and level of play are even more concerning than the results and the Suns do not have much time to turn things around. While blame cannot fall on just one individual, Devin Booker has underperformed in a major way this season.
At his best, Booker is one of the premier two-way shooting guards in the NBA. Unfortunately, this has not been the version of him seen frequently this season. Booker is averaging 26.0 points, 6.7 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game, with each number falling short of last season’s output. He has been held to under 27.5 points in 26 of the 49 games he has played on the season. This includes being held to 17 points in 41 minutes on Thursday and each of his past three games.
While the Bulls have plenty of problems in their own right, they have shown some improvement on the defensive end lately. Booker is also battling a back injury and just has not looked like himself for the larger part of the season. This will be the first matchup between these two teams this season, so expect the internal issues in Phoenix to continue showing face. Count on Booker being held to under 27.5 points for the fourth straight game and the 27th time on the season overall.
Nic Claxton Over 7.5 Rebounds (-110)
The Philadelphia 76ers will face off with the Brooklyn Nets with this surprisingly being a matchup that holds some significant stakes for both sides. With each team holding the same record, this will break the tie and very well could shape whether Philadelphia makes a push for the play-in or looks to increase its lottery odds moving forward. One of the biggest issues with the Sixers has been their rebounding ability. They rank dead last in the league in total rebounds, 19th in opponent rebounds allowed and have the worst overall rebounding rate.
Joel Embiid’s injury issues have kept him off the floor far more than the team anticipated, with tonight expected to be his 19th game of the season. In theory, he would help with the rebounding effort, but he has shown little ability to jump off the injured knee and is averaging just 8.2 rebounds per game this season, the fewest since his rookie year. He was most recently held to just three rebounds against the Boston Celtics on Thursday and he did not record a single rebound in the second half. The Sixers’ rebounding rate, while remaining last in the NBA, has gotten worse with Embiid on the floor, going from 46.9% to 44.5% as a team.
Look for Nic Claxton to be the biggest beneficiary of this vulnerability. The Nets big man is averaging exactly 7.5 rebounds per game this season, which is down from the 9.9 he produced last season. He has had his battles with Embiid in the past and has recorded over 7.5 rebounds in 23 of the 48 games he has played this season. This will be the third matchup between these two teams this year, with Claxton averaging 8.0 rebounds per game and recording over 7.5 rebounds in two of the three matchups. Expect his size and athleticism to be an issue in this matchup and for Claxton to ultimately pull in at least eight rebounds tonight.
Nikola Jokic Over 11.5 Rebounds (-120)
The Denver Nuggets will host the new-look Los Angeles Lakers and are riding a nine-game winning streak entering this matchup. Nikola Jokic continues to be at the heart of everything Denver does and is averaging 29.7 points, 12.7 rebounds and 10.2 assists per game this season. Jokic ranks third in the league in rebounding and has an extremely favorable matchup on the boards in this game.
The Lakers rank 26th in the league in rebounding and are 20th in rebounding rate. This also comes while Anthony Davis was on the roster for the larger part of the season. Now it will be Alex Len and Jaxson Hayes tasked with keeping the three-time MVP off the glass. Los Angeles was well aware of this weakness and attempted to address it by trading for Mark Williams, but this deal was ultimately rescinded under circumstances that are still not entirely clear.
Jokic has recorded over 11.5 rebounds in 31 of the 50 games he has played this season and has tallied as many as 22 rebounds in a game. He had 13 rebounds in the previous matchup with the Lakers this season with that being while Davis was on the team. With Denver’s best player having a strength at one of the Lakers’ largest weaknesses, expect Jokic to be all over the glass tonight. For the sake of the article, we will stick to over 11.5 rebounds as his standard prop. But it may be worth taking a chance on some alternate lines such as Jokic recording 15+ rebounds, which he has done 15 times this season, at +300 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nick Smith Jr. Under 2.5 Assists (+114)
It is an ugly matchup to close down the NBA slate and we have an ugly prop bet to go right along with it. These two teams sit in 13th and 14th place in their respective conferences and are much more focused on their long-term rebuild than the short-term results. Nick Smith Jr. has been a bright spot for the team this season and has stepped into the starting lineup for 16 of the 35 games he has played this season. Overall, he is averaging 8.2 points, 1.9 assists and 1.9 rebounds on the season across his 19.4 minutes per game.
LaMelo Ball missed the second half of a back-to-back on Thursday night and is expected to return to the floor tonight. This impacts Smith at a greater rate than most of the roster, with this particularly showing up in his playmaking opportunities. The Arkansas product has been held to under 2.5 assists in 25 of the 35 games this season and is limited in his playmaking opportunities when sharing the floor with Ball. He logged three assists in Thursday’s game without Ball and has seen his playmaking numbers grow without the Hornets star sharing the floor.
With Ball back in the lineup, expect Smith’s role to be scaled back and for him to see little opportunity as a playmaker. Ball trails only Giannis Antetokounmpo for the highest usage percentage in the league per NBA.com and is averaging 7.2 assists per game this season. Expect him to continue to take on the vast majority of these opportunities and capitalize by taking Smith to be held to under 2.5 assists.
