All hopes brought on by the excitement of an impressive offseason have been thrown out the window for the Philadelphia 76ers. They hold a 20-35 record, sit 11th place in the Eastern Conference, and the deep playoff aspirations they once held are seemingly nonexistent with the home stretch of the season arriving. Unfortunately, the root of the underwhelming season goes directly back to Joel Embiid.
Availability has never been a strength of the Sixers superstar, but he has suited up for just 18 total games thus far. When he has been on the floor he has not looked like the dominant version of himself. Embiid is averaging 24.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game. He missed the All-Star Game for the first time since the 2016-17 season and has been unable to serve as the foundational star for the team the way the organization has designed.
Even still, there is no time for Embiid or the Sixers to feel bad for themselves. Tonight, they face the Brooklyn Nets, who also hold a 20-35 record with these two teams tied for 11th place in the Eastern Conference. While these teams had vastly different outlooks entering the season, the result of this game could play a major role in the Sixers’ effort to make a push for the Play-In Tournament and avoid a fully lost season.
The Sixers enter tonight’s matchup as 11-point favorites and are -535 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nets are +400 underdogs on the Moneyline with the game total set at 212.5.
With the stage set, here are my favorite Joel Embiid prop bets ahead of the Saturday night matchup.
Best Joel Embiid Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Joel Embiid’s props are listed at over/under 26.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.5 made three-pointers and 41.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Joel Embiid Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+135)
Joel Embiid’s 24.3 points per game are the lowest he has produced since the 2019-20 season, and the concerns are deeper than just a shooting slump. Embiid visibly does not trust himself to explode off his knee in the same way he once did and may no longer be the physically-imposing post presence he proved to be at the peak of his career.
One way to combat this is by expanding his range to the perimeter, which has been a point of emphasis as his career has progressed. Embiid took some significant strides toward this these past few years, becoming one of the most efficient mid-range shooters in the league. The next step is for his three-point volume to further grow.
Embiid is attempting 3.9 three-point attempts per game this season and connecting on 32.4% of these attempts. This is below the 34.1% rate he has shot from beyond the arc in his career. The seven-time All-Star is averaging 1.3 three-point makes per game and has connected on as many as four three-pointers in a game this season. He has made at least one three-pointer in 15 of the 18 games he has played and shot 2-for-3 from beyond the arc in the previous matchup with the Nets. Brooklyn ranks 24th in the NBA in opponent three-point percentage.
Expect Embiid to continue adjusting to the new outlook for his body and be more willing to settle from the perimeter. His effort level getting up and down the floor has not been overly impressive, but this oftentimes creates three-point looks for him as the trailer. Expect him to shy away from the shot-blocking presence of Nic Claxton and be more comfortable living and dying with his jump shot than ever before in his career. I like the +135 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for Embiid to connect with over 1.5 three-pointers and for this to be a more notable part of his game moving forward.
Joel Embiid Under 9.5 Rebounds (+100)
While the scoring output and lack of impact from the post is a clear indication of Joel Embiid’s physical struggles, it is even more evident in his rebounding production. His 8.2 rebounds per game is the first time Embiid has averaged fewer than 10 rebounds per game since his rookie season. He has been held to under 9.5 rebounds in 11 of the 18 games the Cameroon native has suited up for this year.
Most recently, Embiid was limited to just three rebounds in Thursday’s loss to the Boston Celtics. He did not record a rebound in the second half in the disappointing loss. This also is the third time this season he has been limited to three rebounds in a game.
As a team, the Sixers rank dead-last in total rebounds, 19th in opponent rebounds allowed and have the worst overall rebounding rate. Embiid’s lack of availability has been a huge part of this issue, but their rebounding rate has been worse when he has been available.
Embiid has fallen short of double-digit rebounds in four of his past five games. Expect the athleticism of Nic Claxton to give him some real issues and for Embiid to be held under 9.5 rebounds tonight.
