Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or micro-edges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Mavericks big man P.J. Washington to have a 50% chance to play tonight at home versus New Orleans. With the Mavericks down their usual starting Centers as Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively remain on the sidelines along with Anthony Davis, Washington’s availability is crucial to know in a game with 121.8 implied points for Dallas. He hasn’t played since Feb. 8, but the hope is that the All-Star break healed his right ankle sprain enough to go tonight in a soft matchup against the Pelicans.
With former teammate Luka Doncic off the court, Washington has blossomed this year as a producer. Washington averages 1.1 DraftKings points per minute on a 21.6% usage rate, 14.5% rebound rate and 10.1% assist rate in court time without Doncic. If he plays today, Unabated NBA projects Washington for 15.2 points, 9.1 rebounds and 2.8 assists. Unabated’s bet simulation tools would also find 11% Expected Value on the Washington’s under 28.5 points + rebounds + assists line at DraftKings Sportsbook with some uncertainty to his minutes if he does return to the lineup.
If Washington is out, he’d open up minutes for guys like Kessler Edwards as well as a lot of additional potential statistical production. Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections would see the following changes to Washington’s Dallas teammates if he sits out:
- Kyrie Irving projects for 28.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.2 assists (27.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 6.3 assists if Washington plays)
- Klay Thompson projects for 17.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.5 assists (17.1 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists if Washington plays)
- Dante Exum projects for 9.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists (9.2 points, 3.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists if Washington plays)
While those projection changes may seem relatively minor, they would open up 8.4% expected value on Kyrie Irving’s over 38.5 points + rebounds + assists line and 7.1% EV on Klay Thompson’s over 22.5 PRAs line on DraftKings Sportsbook. You should run to place those bets the moment Washington is ruled out, if he is. Bets that fall within that range of expected value have yielded Unabated customers over a 7% return on investment this year.
In DraftKings tournaments tonight, Washington could be an interesting low-owned play if he’s available with industry data projecting him for around 10% ownership. If he’s out, there could be value plays opened up — including the aforementioned Edwards, who’s played at least 26 minutes in the last three games without Washington, including 40 minutes in their last game before the All-Star break. Washington’s status is one of the most important to watch out for on tonight’s NBA slate.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
