Behind the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Western Conference is a crowded mess as the season resumes after the All-Star break. The Thunder lead by eight games over the Denver Nuggets, so they’ve basically clinched home court advantage throughout the West playoffs, but the fourth-seeded Houston Rockets are just three and a half games ahead of the seventh-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves and eight games ahead of the 11th-seeded Phoenix Suns.
The picture will be a little bit clearer after Friday night’s nationally-televised clash, as the Timberwolves will travel to Houston to face the Rockets, which tips off at 9:30 p.m. ET.
Houston is a 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-162 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 220.5. Meanwhile, Minnesota is +136 on the Moneyline.
Amen Thompson O15.5 Points (-105)
Because the Rockets are so deep, it’s difficult to predict the 22-year-old Thompson’s output on any given night. In his last 12 games, he’s scored 20 or more points six times and fewer than 10 four times, and over his last nine games, he’s basically alternated between high-scoring and low-scoring outings. But in general, the trend is positive for Thompson; since January 1, he’s averaging 16.5 points, 9.7 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 2.0 steals per game on 52.7% shooting from the field. Over that span, he’s had an 18.1% usage rate, and although that’s slightly boosted by Alperen Şengün’s three-game absence in early February, he should still have enough usage to score 16 points tonight.
He’ll have an exciting matchup against Timberwolves shooting guard Anthony Edwards, if the former first overall pick plays. Edwards — like Thompson — is one of the NBA’s premier athletes, and he’s generally become an above-average perimeter defender, even though opponents are shooting 1.6 percentage points higher than usual this season when guarded by him. However, Edwards sat out of the All-Star tournament with hip soreness and is questionable for tonight’s game. I’m generally optimistic about Thompson whether he’s guarded by Edwards or his backup, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, a similar ilk of defender. Thompson scored 16 points on February 6 in the two teams’ most recent meeting.
Mike Conley U4.5 Assists (+114)
Conley, a one-time All-Star and four-time Sportsmanship Award winner, is one of the nicest guys in the NBA, but unfortunately, he isn’t a starting-quality point guard anymore. There’s no shame in the 37-year-old having a little bit of a downturn in his form in his 18th season, but the southpaw is averaging career lows in minutes, points, and field goal percentage. In fact, his 37.1% field goal percentage is the third-lowest among 202 players who have played at least 40 games and attempted at least five shots per game. He’s still okay as a passer, but his 25.3% assist percentage is the fourth-lowest in his career.
To his credit, Conley has dished out five or more assists in eight of his last 10 games, averaging 6.2 dimes per game across that span, but he’s also coming off a two-week injury absence and has a questionable designation for tonight’s game, so he’ll probably be on a minutes restriction if he does play. Several key players — including Edwards and Gobert — are also questionable, so the most frequent targets of his assists also won’t be 100% either. To make matters even worse for Conley, Houston has allowed the fewest assists per game of any team in the NBA.
Tari Eason O1.5 Steals (+105)
By ESPN’s Player Impact Estimate, the Rockets’ third-best player — behind Şengün and Thompson — isn’t shooting guard Jalen Green or point guard Fred VanVleet. Instead, it’s Eason, a former 17th overall pick who played just 22 games last season and has come off the bench for 32 of his 36 appearances so far in 2024-25. The 23-year-old wing was drafted out of LSU as a defensive specialist, and through his first three seasons in Houston, he’s been just that. This season, Eason has a 3.1 defensive box plus-minus, which would be tied with Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for the third-best in the NBA if he had played enough minutes to qualify.
Minnesota has played at the league’s sixth-slowest pace, and the Rockets have played at its 11th-slowest, so by count statistics, there aren’t too many flaws with either squad. The most noteworthy hole that either team has is the fact that the Timberwolves allow 9.1 steals per game, the ninth-most in the league. It makes sense; among the 235 players that have appeared in at least 40 games this season, Gobert, Edwards, and Alexander-Walker all rank among the 60 most turnover-prone, as do two of their injured teammates, Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. Eason had five steals — his second-highest total of the season — in the teams’ most recent matchup.
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