The madness of the NBA trade deadline and intermission of All-Star Weekend are in the books, as every team is buckling up for the season’s home stretch. Opportunity remains in front of each team, and the standings have begun to settle with under 30 games remaining.
The action will pick up tonight with nine games on the NBA schedule. Most notably, the Cleveland Cavaliers will host the New York Knicks, while the Memphis Grizzlies face the Orlando Magic at 7:00 p.m. ET. Then, the Miami Heat will play the Toronto Raptors and the New Orleans Pelicans will travel to face the Dallas Mavericks.
In the late slate, the Oklahoma City Thunder will take on the Utah Jazz while the Houston Rockets face the Minnesota Timberwolves with both games tipping off at 9:30 p.m. ET. The final matchup of the night will tip-off at 10:00 p.m. ET between the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings, with both teams seeing a significant shakeup at the trade deadline.
With the stage set and the NBA beginning to settle down after a hectic stretch, here are my favorite prop bets for the Feb. 21 slate of games.
Bilal Coulibaly Under 1.5 Made Three-Poonters (-115)
The Washington Wizards will host the Milwaukee Bucks tonight and continue to hold the worst record in the NBA. Washington will be searching for their 10th win of the season and enter ranked 27th in scoring and 29th in three-point percentage as a team. Bilal Coulibaly has been a part of this issue, with his offensive abilities still being a work in progress. While there are plenty of reasons for optimism for what he has shown this season, the Frenchman is shooting just 28.2% on three-point attempts on 3.9 attempts per game. This is a step back from the 34.6% rate he connected on last season.
Milwaukee is holding opponents to the ninth-worst three-point percentage this season. While Coulibaly has made as many as five three-pointers in a game this year, he has been held to under 1.5 made three-pointers in 35 of the 50 games he has played. This will be the third matchup between these two teams so far this season. Coulibaly has shot a combined 1-for-7 from beyond the three-point arc in these two matchups against the Bucks thus far.
While the Bucks still sit in fifth place in the Eastern Conference, the pressure is on them to compete this season. They still have some areas to grow individually, and expect a focused effort over this final stretch. Coulibaly has not shown enough volume or efficiency from beyond the three-point arc on the season, and he has been held below 1.5 made three-pointers in 70% of the games thus far. Look for this trend to continue and for him to be held to one or fewer made three-pointers tonight.
Immanuel Quickley Over 15.5 Points (-120)
The Toronto Raptors will host the Miami Heat in their first game back from the All-Star break. Both of these teams had some significant shakeups at the trade deadline, with Toronto taking a surprising chance by adding Brandon Ingram. The Raptors still sit in 13th place in the Eastern Conference and have mild expectations for the remainder of the season. They continue to navigate their evaluation of their long-term core, with Immanuel Quickley being a key part of this equation.
So far this season, the Kentucky product is averaging 15.3 points per game and has recorded over 15.5 points in six of the 16 games he has played. Injuries have limited his level of impact, but Quickley played the final four games before the trade deadline and now had some additional time to rest. He produced scoring outputs in his final three games of 25, 20, and 15 points and has a favorable matchup against this Heat team.
While Miami has built its identity as a defensive-minded team, they have fallen short in this category this year. Over the past 10 games, opposing starting point guards are producing 23.1 points per game against the Heat, which is the fourth-worst rate in the NBA. Quickly has connected at a 50.5% rate from the field over his past 10 games, which is well above his season average of 42.2%. Expect a strong stretch from Quickley coming out of the break, and for his best basketball of the year still to come. Look for this to start tonight and for him to be in attack mode in this favorable matchup. Count on him to record over 15.5 points for the seventh time this season tonight.
Dante Exum Over 14.5 Points & Assists (-105)
The Dallas Mavericks are still navigating the hectic stretch following the Luka Doncic trade. Anthony Davis returned to the injured list and is set to continue to miss a few weeks. One positive injury news that was received is the return of Dante Exum. He is set to suit up for just his eighth game of the season after battling a wrist injury for the entire first portion of the season.
Dallas desperately needs the skill set Exum can provide, and he has flashed his abilities in his first few games. Over the 19.7 minutes per game he has played, Exum is averaging 11.7 points and 3.7 assists. He has recorded over 14.5 combined points and assists in four of the seven games thus far, and finished with 27 points and four assists in the final game before the All-Star break.
The Mavericks have a favorable matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. Injuries have derailed their season in a major way, and they also have played at an increased pace in recent games, ranking second in the NBA over the past five games. This should increase the number of offensive opportunities and Exum will continue to be leaned on as a creator in the offense. He logged a season-high 24:08 of game time in the final matchup before the break and expect his level of opportunity to be similar to this. Look for him to record over 14.5 combined points and assists against the Pelicans tonight as he provides some necessary relief to Kyrie Irving within the flow of the Dallas offense.
Domantas Sabonis Over 5.5 Assists (+100)
The final matchup of tonight’s NBA slate will be between the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors. Domantas Sabonis has emerged as the central offensive engine of the Kings after De’Aaron Fox was traded to the Spurs. Sabonis missed out on his fourth All-Star appearance this year but is still averaging 20.4 points, an NBA-best 14.6 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game. This is below his assist output of 8.2 assists per game last year, and look for this number to grow in the coming weeks.
Sabonis is one of the highest usage players in the NBA, logging 36.1 minutes per game and seeing 77.9 touches per game. He trails only Nikola Jokic for the most touches in the post, and expect the Kings’ offense to lean further into this with some off-ball motion surrounding Sabonis. He has tallied over 5.5 assists in 29 of the 52 games he has played this season.
The Warriors have flashed their defensive abilities in stretches this season, but it is still difficult to project their full outlook. This is especially the case following the Jimmy Butler addition, of which the early results have been promising. Sabonis was held to just three assists in one of the previous matchups with the Warriors, which is tied for his third-lowest assist output on the season. He still added 26 points and 18 rebounds, so still impacted the game positively, and he also tallied seven assists in the other matchup. Expect Golden State to be vulnerable to backdoor cuts and off-ball motion as they settle in with their new roster, and for Sabonis to be responsible for connecting on these passes. He has recorded over 5.5 assists in 55.8% of the games he has played thus far. Look for this to continue tonight and capitalize on the +100 odds.
