All of a sudden, the Sacramento Kings’ position in the Western Conference Play-In Tournament race looks a lot better. After losing Victor Wembanyama for the season, the San Antonio Spurs are all but finished, and both the Phoenix Suns and once-hot Portland Trail Blazers have lost four in a row. The 28-27 Kings are looking like a sure bet to stay in the Play-In picture and at least have a shot at earning a first round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Sacramento might not be a great matchup for the Thunder, who struggle with size, thanks to this season’s biggest All-Star snub, center Domantas Sabonis. The 28-year-old has led the league in rebounding in each of the past three seasons and has recorded a league-high 28 rebounds twice this season. Overall, he’s averaging 20.4 points, a career-high 14.6 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game while shooting 45.5% from beyond the arc.
Tonight, Sabonis and the Kings will welcome the Golden State Warriors — who are also 28-27 — for a short trip up I-80.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Sacramento (+120) is a slight underdog and the point total is set to 237.5. Below, I’ve outlined my favorite props centered around Domas.
Best Domantas Sabonis Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Domantas Sabonis 15+ Rebounds (+100)
Technically, since adding Jimmy Butler III at the trade deadline, Golden State has allowed just 39.8 rebounds per game across four games with Butler in the starting lineup, the third-fewest in the NBA. With Butler in the lineup, the Warriors are stacked with players who are better rebounders than expected for their size — the six-foot-seven Butler, six-foot-six Green, six-foot-two Stephen Curry (who averaged 8.0 rebounds per game in the 2017 Finals), and six-foot-nine Kevon Looney. When healthy, Golden State is legitimately dangerous on the boards, and I’m not sure its performance in the last four games is a fluke, even if it allowed the 11th-most rebounds per game before adding Butler.
Still, Sabonis is arguably a top five rebounder in NBA history at any height, and I’m not sure that there’s any team capable of keeping him off the boards. He’s 15th all time in rebounding percentage — eighth among active players — but the 21.2% he has posted over the last three seasons would be the seventh-best ever. He has only three single-digit rebounding performances all season, and since January 1, he’s averaging 16.0 boards per game. He’s also grabbed 15 or more boards in 21 of his 51 starts, including each of his last four. In the teams’ most recent game, a 123-117 Kings win on January 22, Sabonis snagged 18 boards.
Domantas Sabonis +4.5 Points vs. Jimmy Butler (-115)
Sabonis’ scoring has cooled down since an 11-game set in January that included 10 20-point performances; he’s scored 20 or more points just three times since Zach LaVine joined the team at the trade deadline, and he’s just fourth on the team in usage across that span, after LaVine, Malik Monk, and DeMar DeRozan. But if I’m predicting him to have a big rebounding night, some scoring will inevitably come with that, given that he leads the league in offensive rebounds and second-chance points. Even on a fully-healthy Kings roster against a defense that has allowed the ninth-fewest points in the league since trading for Butler, 18 points is a reasonable expectation.
If we assume 18 points as the baseline performance for Sabonis — his over-under prop is 17.5 — the question then becomes whether or not Butler can score 23. He’s done it once in his four games with the Warriors, when he dropped 25 points in his debut with the team, a blowout victory over the Chicago Bulls. But Chicago has allowed the second-most points per game this season, and while the Kings have allowed the seventh-most points in the league since the trade deadline, they have a slightly better defense overall than the Bulls do. Unless Butler draws free throws from Sabonis — Sabonis averages a league-leading 3.6 fouls per game, and Butler earns 6.9 free throw attempts per game, the sixth-most in basketball — I doubt he’ll score five more points than the Beam Team’s star.
