College basketball is climbing toward center stage of the sports world with the NCAA Tournament now right around the corner. Each notable matchup carries some additional weight as the season winds down and seeding implications are on the line. One notable matchup set to headline the Saturday state will be Houston vs. Iowa State.
Both these teams hold deep NCAA Tournament aspirations and have shown flashes of being among college basketball’s most elite. These teams are currently ranked third and eighth in the net rankings. This matchup will be taking place in Houston, so the Cougars will have the home crowd behind them.
Houston enters this game as a 9.5-point favorite. Iowa State holds +330 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 134.5 points.
Houston Analysis
Houston enters this matchup with a 22-4 record on the season. They are 14-1 in Big 12 play which puts the Cougars as the top seed in the conference. They are also ranked third in the country overall. They are 6-4 against Quad 1 opponents and a perfect 16-0 against Quad 2-4 opponents. Their four losses are at the hands of Auburn, Alabama, San Diego State and Texas Tech.
When looking at the production of Houston, the conversation must start on the defensive end. The Cougars are holding opponents to the fewest points in the country, allowing just 57.6 points per game. They have held opponents below 50 points in nine games this season. Houston seems like it has more players on the court than its opponents at times and also turns the ball over the sixth-fewest times per game.
LJ Cryer is the team’s leading scorer at 14.5 points per game and is leading the conference with his 40.8% three-point rate. Emanuel Sharp, J’Wan Roberts and Milos Uzan each also average in double figures. Defense still steals the spotlight, but Houston ranks seventh in the country in three-point percentage shooting 39.4% as a team. The Cougars enter this matchup on a five-game winning streak and also hold -125 odds of getting a top seed in the NCAA Tournament and +900 odds, the fourth-best odds, of winning the entire tournament.
Iowa State Analysis
The outlook for Iowa State has changed pretty drastically as the season has progressed. Once looking like a dangerous tournament team, there have been some concerning results over the past few weeks. The Cyclones are back on a four-game winning streak but dropped three consecutive games before this at the hands of Arizona, Kansas State and Kansas by a combined margin of 45 points.
Overall, the Cyclones hold a record of 21-5 and are 11-4 in Big 12 play. They are 6-4 against Quad 1 opponents and also have a Quad 2 loss at the hands of Kansas State. Iowa State ranks 30th in the country in scoring at 81.3 points per game and is holding opponents to 66.9 points per game which ranks 51st. They are an experienced team with 66.1% of their scoring production from last year remaining on the roster.
Curtis Jones headlines Iowa State’s scoring at 17.2 points per game while Keshon Gilbert, Joshua Jefferson, Tamin Lipsey and Milan Momcilovic are each also averaging in double figures. They rank 33rd in the country in field goal percentage and get to the free throw line at the 21st-best rate. Defensively they also force the 15th most steals per game. The Cyclones hold +1100 odds of getting a top seed in the NCAA Tournament and +1600 odds, the sixth-best odds, of winning the entire tournament.
The Pick: Iowa State Team Total Under 61.5 Points (+110)
As far as a side, I lean in favor of Houston covering the -9.5. But my favorite bet in this top-ranked matchup is the Iowa State team total of under 61.5 points.
The Cyclones are averaging 81.3 points per game and have only been held under 61.5 points in three games. These three games were against Kansas, West Virginia and Kansas State. Houston has an even greater caliber of defensive talent than these teams, so expect the Cougars to make their impact felt. Houston has held opponents below this number in 17 of its 26 games, including holding Utah to just 36 points in a game this season.
Expect Houston to control the pace of the game and for its defense to be the story. The Cougars are holding opponents to the fifth-worst field goal percentage and the 24th-best rebounding rate. Iowa State ranks 264th in three-point volume and 125th in three-point percentage, so a strong perimeter attack against this impressive defense is improbable. Expect the crowd to play a role and for Houston to control the game script with there just not enough offensive talent on Iowa State to break Houston’s defense. Kelvin Sampson’s squad looks to be peaking at the right time and this has a chance to be one of their most convincing performances of the season.
