The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner and the final push to qualify is in full swing. There are plenty of teams on the bubble with this final stretch of the regular season underway before Conference Tournament play begins. In addition, teams will make their push for why they should be a top seed entering the tournament.
This article will dive into the top values on the board for teams to earn a top spot. This is an important stage of the season where the picture could change with several high-profile games still set to take place before the regular season concludes.
No. 1 Seed Odds 2025 NCAA Tournament
The (Seeming) Locks:
Auburn (-20000): As the top-ranked team in the country, Auburn checks every box for what you look for in a top seed. They hold a 24-2 record on the season and are 14-2 in Quad 1 matchups. The Tigers have plenty of experience on the roster with the starting lineup holding an average age of 22.8. They can win games in a variety of ways but are headlined by their sixth-best scoring output in the country. Auburn currently holds -20000 odds of earning a top seed on DraftKings Sportsbook and it would take a disastrous end to the season for this to change. Expect the Tigers to remain in control and ultimately earn a top seed with no value on the table at this stage of the year.
Duke (-6000): Expectations are always high for Duke and this is especially the case this season with freshman phenom Cooper Flagg on the roster. The Blue Devils have answered the bell and hold an overall record of 23-3 this season. They are 15-1 in ACC Conference play, however, are just 5-3 against Quad 1 opponents. Duke has one of the better defenses in college basketball, holding opponents to the sixth-fewest points per game, and has plenty of talent surrounding Flagg. They currently hold -6000 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to secure a top seed. Duke will close the regular season with matchups against Illinois, Miami, Florida State, Wake Forest and North Carolina. While this is far from a walk in the park, it is an easier remaining schedule compared to most of the top teams, and expect them to maintain their inside track on getting a one-seed.
Pathway is There:
Florida (-190): The Gators have climbed to second in the country in the AP Rankings with their 22-3 record on the season. They are 10-3 in conference play, putting them in second place in the loaded SEC, and are 5-3 against Quad 1 opponents. Florida ranks 11th in the country in scoring and 38th in opponent points allowed. Walter Clayton Jr. headlines the team’s production with his 17.3 points per game. They currently hold -190 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to earn a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. While the pathway is there for Florida, they close their season on a tough stretch which has a chance to de-rail these top-seeded hopes. They will conclude their schedule on the road against LSU before four straight Quad 1 matchups against Georgia, Texas A&M, Alabama and Ole Miss. The opportunity is there for them to cement their resume if these games go according to plan, but I am not as bullish on Florida being locked in as a one-seed with this difficult stretch in mind. Plus, the -190 price point feels too steep.
Houston (-125): There is no other team in the country that can take over a game defensively the way Houston can. Kelvin Sampson’s squad has completely bought in on this side of the floor (as is typically the case) and is allowing just 57.6 points per game to opponents — the best rate in the country. They hold a 21-4 record overall and are 14-1 in Big 12 play. Houston is 6-4 against Quad 1 opponents and has a final stretch that can cement their resume. They currently hold -125 odds of getting a top seed on DraftKings Sportsbook and will close the season with matchups against Iowa State, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Kansas and Baylor. Things seem to be clicking at the right time for Houston and they have a chance to prove this down the stretch. I like the -125 odds for Houston earning a top seed, although their outlook could drastically change with these games.
Alabama (-110): The Crimson Tide are looking to bounce back after back-to-back losses at the hands of Auburn and Missouri. These are blemishes they will be forced to wear, but neither are results they should be embarrassed by. Overall, Alabama is 21-5 on the season and 10-3 in SEC play. They are the top-scoring team in the country averaging 90.6 points per game, but they rank 349th out of the 364 qualifying teams in points allowed. The Crimson Tide are 8-5 against Quad 1 opponents and will close their season with five consecutive ranked opponents: Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Florida and Auburn. They currently hold -110 odds of getting a top seed on DraftKings Sportsbook and this final stretch will make or break their outlook. Even while the previous opponents were difficult, Alabama has not looked as convincing in recent games, so this is not a value I am jumping at.
Value Picks:
Tennessee (+240): Rick Barnes’ squad also leans on its defense as its calling card and has plenty of experience on its roster. Tennessee ranks fourth in the country in points allowed at just 60.4 points per game. They are 21-5 on the season and 8-5 in SEC play, which puts them in sixth place in the loaded conference. The Volunteers are 8-5 against Quad 1 opponents and will close the season with three additional Quad 1 matchups in their final five games. They defeated both Florida and Missouri over their past five games and could add to their impressive results with matchups against Texas A&M, Alabama and Ole Miss on the horizon. Tennessee currently holds +240 odds for getting one-seed in the tournament on DraftKings Sportsbook and the results of their matchup with Alabama will surely shake up the odds in a major way. If you are a believer in the Volunteers, now would be the time to jump on it. Getting +240 odds is great value based on the opportunity in front of them.
Wisconsin (+700): Sometimes peaking at the right time is what is most important in sports and Wisconsin is showing signs of this being the case. They are riding a five-game winning streak which includes recent victories over Purdue and Illinois. They hold a record of 21-5 this season and are 11-4 in Big Ten play. Wisconsin is one of only four teams in the country with eight or more Quad 1 wins and zero losses to Quad 2-4 teams, joining Auburn, Tennessee and Alabama. They rank 24th in the country in scoring and also hold the best team free throw percentage. DraftKings is currently offering +700 odds for them to be a top seed. They will close the regular season with matchups against Oregon, Washington, Michigan State, Minnesota and Penn State. To earn a top seed they almost certainly would have to finish the regular season by winning each of these games and making some noise in the Conference Tournament. Based on the way they have played of late, I like these chances and the +700 odds are worth taking a swing on before the hectic final stretch gets underway.
