After a new-look NBA All-Star Weekend that wasn’t exactly a hit, the NBA is back in action for the first games in exactly a week. The Los Angeles Lakers and Charlotte Hornets gave us a taste last night, with the Hornets pulling off the shocker, but tonight, it’ll be a proper nine-game slate.
Here are my top bets for Thursday’s games at DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s hoops action.
First, let’s take a look at the full slate:
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, 7 p.m. ET
Memphis Grizzlies at Indiana Pacers, 7 p.m. ET
Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET
Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
LA Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 p.m. ET
Charlotte Hornets at Denver Nuggets, 9 p.m. ET
Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs, 9:30 p.m. ET
Paul George U14.5 Points (-120)
One of the most-discussed storylines from the first half of the season was just how bad Paul George has been after Philadelphia signed him to a four-year, $212 million contract. In five games since returning from a finger injury that cost him the previous five contests, he has averaged 10.2 points per game, shooting 39.6% from the field and 34.6% from beyond the arc. After his first two seasons in the NBA, George has scored fewer than 10 points in a game just 41 times, seven of which have come this season and three in his last six games. The 2012-13 Most Improved Player is, unfortunately, in the running for the hypothetical Most Regressed Player award.
Maybe the week off will do the 34-year-old some good, but turning it around against Boston and its plethora of wing defenders is a challenge. Jaylen Brown has been a significantly worse defender than he has been in years past, but Jayson Tatum is playing some of the best defense of his career and Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, and Kristaps Porzingis are all elite defenders at their positions, even if they’re all aging somewhat. The Celtics had the second-best defensive rating last season and are fifth this season.
Brooklyn Nets U103.5 Points (+120)
Brooklyn has won six of its last seven games and has the league’s best defensive rating over the last 10 games, allowing just 106.3 points per 100 possessions. Somehow, even with such an elite defense, the Nets are a net-negative team over that span, scoring just 105.9 points per 100 possessions. I’m more convinced that their offense is bad than I am that their defense is actually elite, especially with top scorer Cam Thomas still out. Brooklyn has struggled to score all season, posting the league’s fourth-worst offensive rating, and it has scored 104 or more points just twice in its last 14 games.
After upgrading from Caris LeVert to De’Andre Hunter at the trade deadline, the Cavaliers have improved defensively, allowing just 104.9 points per 100 possessions in the two games since adding Hunter to the lineup. More broadly, over its last 10 games, Cleveland has improved from the league’s eighth-best defense on a season-long basis to the fifth-best in the past 10 games. The average champion over the last 24 seasons has had the league’s sixth-ranked defense, so if the Cavaliers can maintain their defensive form, they are easily the best bet to win the East at +250 and have friendly championship odds at +700.
Atlanta Hawks Moneyline (-102)
Shortly before the All-Star break, these were two of the teams in the coldest form in the league. Orlando — despite finally getting Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner back — continued its slide, thanks mostly to Banchero shooting just 40.6% from the field and 28.9% from deep in the 17 games since his return. To their credit, the Magic then won three of their last five games headed into the All-Star break, but Atlanta recovered their form even better, winning four of their last six games behind the league’s ninth-best offense. Over that span, Hawks point guard Trae Young averaged 30.3 points and 11.5 rebounds per game, one major reason why commissioner Adam Silver deemed him worthy of replacing Giannis Antetokounmpo in the All-Star game. This season, Orlando is just 10-19 on the road with the league’s sixth-worst net rating away from the Kia Center, while Atlanta is 12-12 at home. The Magic also had hoped to have point guard Jalen Suggs back, but he remains out and has played in just one of the team’s last 20 games.
Milwaukee Bucks +2.5 Alternate Spread (-105)
This game is difficult to predict because of the injury status of Bucks All-Stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. Both players are questionable entering the game, Lillard with a hamstring injury and Antetokounmpo with the calf strain that kept him out for the six games prior to the All-Star break and the game itself. Both practiced yesterday, and given that Lillard also participated in both the All-Star tournament and the three-point contest, I’d expect both players to suit up. If anything, I’d guess that Antetokounmpo plays tonight and rests tomorrow, when Milwaukee travels to face his former teammate Khris Middleton and the Washington Wizards.
This morning, the Bucks were dealt a big blow when Bobby Portis — who finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting in each of the past two seasons — was suspended for 25 games after, according to his agent, accidentally taking a banned medication instead of an approved medication with a similar name. Portis hasn’t been quite as efficient this season as he was each of the last two seasons, but he’s still a valuable asset for a contending team and losing him for the rest of the regular season will hurt. The Clippers outscore opponents by 13.9 points per 100 possessions with Kawhi Leonard on the floor.
Still, after a 2-8 start to the season, Milwaukee has been 27-16. With Antetokounmpo and Lillard healthy, the Bucks are a better team than LA is, and the game is at Fiserv Forum, where Milwaukee is 17-9 with the league’s eighth-best net rating. The Clippers might win, but it’ll be a nail-biting finish.
Kevin Durant 35+ Points + Rebounds (+120)
In their last 10 games, the San Antonio Spurs have the ninth-worst defense in the league, and likely Defensive Player of the Year Victor Wembanyama is doubtful after contracting an illness over the All-Star break. Without Wembanyama on the floor, San Antonio is outscored by 9.1 points per 100 possessions, which would be the second-worst net rating in the league this season. Tonight, the Spurs will probably start Chris Paul, De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, and Jeremy Sochan, and of that five, only Paul and Sochan have graded as above-average defenders. San Antonio has gotten killed on the glass even with Wembanyama, so Durant — who’s played 24% of his minutes at center this season, his most besides his Brooklyn tenure — should have a field day inside. He has recorded 35 or more combined points and rebounds 16 times in his 41 games this season, including five times in 10 games alongside newly-acquired center Nick Richards.
